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China bomber flights cast pall over charm offensive in Osaka s.nikkei.com/4kDulRj

Vietnam thought it had a preliminary deal with the U.S. to lower its tariff level substantially. Then, at the last minute, President Donald J. Trump raised the rate. politico.com/news/2025/07/1…

#ICYMI we just released an episode on how Southeast Asia is increasingly drifting towards China instead of the US. Tune it at the links below to listen to a masterclass from Prof. Joseph Liow.

Liverpool FC will retire the number 20 jersey across all levels of the club in honour and memory of Diogo Jota.

We warned everyone this was coming in our Carnegie Endowment volume on the U.S.-Australia alliance last fall, even before Trump was elected. It has been patently clear for some time that there was a big expectation gap in the alliance around precommitment. carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/…

⁦1/ Zack Cooper:⁩ “It is very difficult to get allies to provide specifics about what they would do in a Taiwan conflict when they don’t know either the scenario’s context or America’s own response.” on.ft.com/44q2D5J

You’ll Never Walk Alone ❤️

Big day Olli Suorsa

Nvidia says it plans to resume H20 sales to China & that the US government has assured the company those shipments will be approved nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%…

China has made progress in many parts of the semiconductor supply chain over the last 5 years: CMP tools, etch & clean, deposition, advanced packaging, testing. But China remains far behind industry leaders in lithography equipment. Great new report: cset.georgetown.edu/article/inside…

That’s why we’ve smacked every country in the region with tariffs, opted out of its trade pacts, punished even those we have existing FTAs with, are extraterritorializing tech control regs, and zeroed out much foreign assistance. But we still sail carriers around. #HessiansOfAsia

The share of people with a favorable view of China has increased since last year in 15 of the 25 countries Pew Research Center surveyed this spring. In most of these countries, this is the first time since 2020 that views of China have turned more positive.

1/ There appear to be efforts underway by the US and China to clear a path toward potential leader-level engagement later this year. Recent weeks have shown a series of steps by each side that appear to respond to each side's priorities and concerns. A few examples (short 🧵):

The final chip challenge: Can China build its own ASML? Wrong question. Can China build something different that is as effective? asia.nikkei.com/Business/Techn…

Update on PLA Activities Around Taiwan (Based on 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼's Data) Three Observations: (1) As of July 15, the cumulative number of PLA aircraft sorties crossing the median line during the first half of July 2025 is significantly lower than during the same period in 2024.

EXCLUSIVE: The Navy is considering eliminating up to five high-level admiral positions key to the construction of ships and fighter planes. politico.com/news/2025/07/1…

Big day Olli Suorsa.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has stepped up messaging about its round-the-clock military drills conducted in an apparent response to Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercise. scmp.com/news/china/mil…

Commerce Sec. Lutnick says TikTok will go dark if China won't agree to U.S. control of the social media app cnb.cx/4lNo0UT