Earlier this year, the President’s budget proposed a 40% cut to the NIH budget. This sparked an obvious research question: What if the NIH had been 40% smaller in previous years? Here’s what Pierre Azoulay, Danielle Li, Bhaven Sampat, and I found when we looked at grants that

Headline PCE inflation comes in at 0.26% month-on-month in Aug; core PCE inflation is 0.23% (0.17% would be consistent with the Fed's 2% annualize target). Over the last 12 months, headline PCE inflation is 2.74% while core is 2.91%, up 46 bps & 30 bps since April respectively.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who is on Bessent's list of people he'll interview as potential Fed chair and is a 2026 FOMC voter, doesn't bury the conclusion in her outlook speech tonight: Cautious about cutting.

New from me Molly Kinder Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/

We already had our first piece of government econ data that didn't get released due to the shutdown

We see AI everywhere except in the labor statistics.

Also not in the productivity statistics. x.com/jasonfurman/st…

New Paper: CBO finds $1 invested in federal non-defense R & D yields $11.50 over 30 yrs, i.e. wow Meanwhile, the Trump Admin proposes a 21% cut in non-defense R & D funding– while targeting top universities– posing a threat to future living standards cbpp.org/research/feder…

While this connection has long been recognized, it has been difficult to quantify. Recent exciting research from Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, @ArnaudDyèvre, & others take a key step forward in connecting the investments to productivity growth, eg: dallasfed.org/~/media/docume…

Andrew Fieldhouse CBO has now weighed in with a stunning analysis that highlights the economic power of investments in non-defense R & D: cbo.gov/system/files/2…

Andrew Fieldhouse An underlying theme of the research is that the US should be investing more in nondefense R & D to boost future living standards.

Almost unbelievable how much CAPEX has grown for the big tech companies in the last decade. Roughly 10x for each of these, and close to 20x for $META

50 year mortgages might be good for some people, but the people assuming interest rates will be the same as on a 30 and who fail to recognize people will be contributing very little to equity in their home for years becuase payments will be covering all that interest are driving

Adam Solomon and I are seeking a highly skilled and motivated predoctoral research assistant to work with us at NYU Stern. This is a full-time position aimed at candidates interested in an economics or finance PhD. Faculty, please tell your students to apply! Link here:

Breaking WSJ: Fannie Mae watchdogs who were removed from their jobs had been probing if Trump appointee Bill Pulte had improperly obtained mortgage records of key Democratic officials, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, according to people familiar with the

The notion that the next decision of the FOMC may come with a substantial number of dissents, (whatever the decision) is taken by some as indicating a crisis at the Fed. I think just the opposite. I see it more as a reflection that we are exactly at the point where it is not

Former Fed governor Adriana Kugler resigned from the central bank after preparing to submit financial disclosures for 2024 that Fed officials could not certify because they included several prohibited activities, including: - buying and selling of individual stocks (not allowed)

Have to hand it to the Fed. First, it voluntarily imposes a set of trading restrictions on its leaders. And then, it actually follows through on enforcing them! (Strangely, some Americans want to think this is a sign of a sick institution 🤷‍♂️).

Note: We are getting CES, which has the job number. We aren't getting CPS, which has the unemployment rate number. "Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data."

Jakob Cychrun with a huge clapper from the top of the left circle beating Dobes. Caps up 4-2. LFG.