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Wow the demographic change in Barcelona is remarkable (but I’m guessing will be becoming more commonplace throughout Europe & parts of Asia before too long). In 1998 the working age population of Barcelona was ~95% native born. By 2024 this number had shrunk to just half!

January-April births even worse than January-March. 2025 births to date now down more than 10% compared to the same time last year. During the Dragon Year drastic decline was briefly arrested as a good number of women probably had planned births that were postponed earlier.

Article critiquing main schools of thinking in Putin’s Russian demographic policy: ultraconservative (more radical ideas including a full abortion ban) & pragmatist (natalist benefits+payouts). carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia…

Paraguayan emigration is unsustainable as the country now has below replacement fertility. The country roughly the size of the State of California will likely top out at less than 8 million people at its current rate of emigration and TFR decline.

Egypt may hit replacement as early as 2026. Likely to be at 1.5 by 2035. This is the probable result of secular Egyptian fertility rates hitting East Asian levels (as Sisi wanted) while religious Egyptian fertility stays above 2.0.

The self destruction of Belarus is really tragic. Lukashenko is perfectly content to let hundreds of thousands of young Belarusians(who are those generally most discontent with his rule)emigrate while the huge boomer cohort slowly dies off. A depopulating country is vulnerable.

Very curious if this negative net migration of EU origin foreign nationals intensified in 2023 & 2024. If so would assume many are moving back to Poland as its economy has started looking more cheery than that of the UK of late with average earning gap narrowing considerably.

Álvaro Tunisia may never even hit 13 million. Very underpopulated country. Morocco will struggle to hit 45 million. Algeria the only one to have somewhat decent demographics by 2050. The latter must make it a priority to stop emigration. For Morocco & Tunisia too late.

Piece on how demographic decline may lead to an increase in warfare (motivated by the desire to compensate, directly or indirectly, for population loss).  Author postulates this may have been a driving factor behind Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/06/rus…