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Year 3 can be a bull market killer. This is now 4 out of the past 12 recent bulls to end in Year 3.

Commentators expected: 1) Supply chain difficulties to last into 2023. Ended this quarter. 2) Semiconductor shortages to last well into 2023, esp. for autos. Ended this quarter per every major OEM. Commentators now expect food and energy shortages to last for years. Ok.

This is an interesting and problematic DAO governance issue.

Morgan Stanley asked CIOs what they're most and least likely to cut spending on during a downturn. Security software had more than twice as many "least likely" votes as anything else. Collaboration software and on-prem spending areas led the way for "most likely."

That’s a worrying sign…

I’ll wrap up this thread in same way Burton wrapped up his wonderful book. It’s a quote from David Goss, the 2004 Nobel prize winner in Physics. He said: “The most important product of knowledge…is Ignorance.” Couldn’t have said it better myself. #NothingIsCertain /24

"The group’s actual production is so far removed from its target, that any notional change to that goal is wholly irrelevant." bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities

JAPAN PM KISHIDA ORDERS RESTART OF UP TO 9 NUCLEAR REACTORS. #Japan🇯🇵

* Copper now at 2018 levels * Iron Ore 2019 * Cotton 2018 * Lumber 2018 * Aluminum 2018 * NA Fertilizer 2008 (this was a wild spike, so not as low as this reads) Still high but well of highs: * Corn * Wheat * Iron Ore

Japan exports up by almost 20% y/y, but down 1.4% by volume. Falling real exports 4 months in a row, and five of six months of 2020 so far. Exports now falling to USA, too, by volume. The inventory overhang and price effects backlash here and overseas. marketsinsiderpro.com

The Aptos Labs whitepaper is finally here 🔥 This document breaks down the fundamental innovations of Aptos. We dive into Move, Block-STM, key management, parallel transaction execution, and much more. github.com/aptos-labs/apt…

😯

1/4 Bond Market Carnage Update: The total return of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index made a new low for the year today. It is now DOWN 16.93% YTD. How stunning is this? The S&P 500, which is having an extraordinarily bad year, is down 17.50% YTD.

1) It would be interesting to see a list of cost-cutting announcements sorted by industry and date. Good CEOs cut early. This means they can cut less as it's an area under the curve problem and the impacted employees have a better chance of finding new jobs. Bad CEOs cut late.

One of the big R&D-efficiency differences between single-live-version saas software vs the previous on-prem, licensed software model, from Eric Vishria:

Zero-knowledge proof systems from theory to practice -have been decades in the making, so for the first time in our canons series we have included a part two within: a reading list by topic & chronology, annotated with commentary ↓ a16zcrypto.com/zero-knowledge…

Why is the cloud industry so important? Gartner projects worldwide cloud spending by end users to grow by 21% to almost $600B in 2023. In this clip, @7amahanti and I discuss the growing movement of IT spend moving to the cloud. youtu.be/3p3rdqNXONg?t=…

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Very interesting inflation numbers today. Let's have a look into the report. A short thread. 1/

surprisingly horrendous experience with Brex. They have lost my wire transfer, it’s been 11 days and I can’t get anyone to tell me whats happening and why.