🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

Given the strong association between ethnic Chinese immigrants and prosperity around the world, I suspect that the Chinese Exclusion Act has a good case for being the most damaging piece of legislation ever. It’s up there with the laws that kept Jews from leaving Germany.

Remember when people argued that the Trump administration was pro-skilled immigration? That was a laugh riot.

"The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States." SCOTUS is cooking up the most ad hoc of justifications for why Trump can fire anyone but the Fed chair.

Populists left and right blame globalization and "Obama-era neoliberalism" for America’s woes. But David Brooks argues the real story is more complex: wage stagnation began earlier, trade losses were overstated, & U.S. prosperity surged, especially post-1990s, not collapsed.

Pro tip: “Real wages have gone up” does not mean: - “All workers everywhere are doing perfectly and equally well.” - “The cost of housing is not a problem.” - “The rate of progress is completely satisfying.” It simply means: real wages have gone up.

Proud to give the opening keynote at 12th annual Asian Monetary Policy Forum today on The Global Economy After the Peace Dividend is Gone Thanks to ABFER NUS MAS The event is for policymakers and academics so is not open/livestreamed. More info: abfer.org/events/abfer-e…

I gave (remotely) the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Address at the Brussels Economic Forum yesterday. My message: Europe should not play China's or the US' game to secure its economic future. Europe can and should succeed by being its best self - peaceful not conflictual; cooperative

In 24 hours, the government has told America's leading university that it cannot attract the best global talent; told a flagship US company that government will decide where and how private capital is used for private ends; threatened allies with ruinous tariffs. "Conservative."

Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect? The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff. 1/7

The absurdity of protectionism and xenophobia has gotten to the point I'm waiting to hear some of these cranks demand that their brain surgeons be born in America or else they don't want the surgery. I don't understand how we've gone from "the china shock led to some job loss

Reminder: Only 14% of US residents are immigrants. But immigrants are responsible for 36% of aggregate innovation. Two-thirds of this contribution is due to making their native-born collaborators better.

1/ Rising 10-30 year yields without changed Fed expectations tells you this is about deficits and eroding reserve status of $. The term premium (the statistical junkyard for stuff we can't explain) has shot up to 90 bp, from negative. My column: wsj.com/economy/centra…

There are certain people on the right who deploy the word "prudence" as if it is a magic spell to justify economic crankery that they cannot otherwise defend on social-scientific merits or evidence. Tariffs are a common application of this tactic at the moment.

Tariffs on Imports from China Are Still Too High w/Alfredo C. Obregón cato.org/blog/tariffs-i… via Cato Institute

Unreal: To sustain his "genocide" of "white farmers" lie while meeting with the South African president, Trump used a photo of war deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo. I looked into this a bit more. It's worse than it first appeared. 1/ (link) newrepublic.com/article/195699…

Well, maybe the family will have one iPhone instead of four iPhones, you know, and maybe the one iPhone will cost a couple thousand bucks more than they would normally.

Nice example of why US tariffs actually undermine US manufacturing & exports: Per BEA, US exports in 2020 contained $46.1 billion worth of imported intermediate inputs from Europe - the most of any US trading partner:

For context, there are about 84,000 jobs in the entire steelmaking industry in the entire United States right now. So I sincerely doubt there will be 70,000 more steel manufacturing jobs just in Pennsylvania.

The U.S. isn’t a nation and never has been, so we can cross that off the list. Immigrants assimilate just fine into our culture, better than in the past, so we’re fine there too. Free movement is consistent with ordered liberty, closed borders inconsistent with it.