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The US economy is heading for recession on.ft.com/4hhWknR | opinion

"Roughly one-third of US auto parts suppliers said they would move production outside of the US if 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico stay in place for six months.... Nearly a quarter...said they would cut or delay investments if tariffs lasted just a month" buff.ly/KX7Od5W

Los aranceles de acero y aluminio serán adicionales al arancel del 25% en vigor para lo que se envía a EEUU fuera del T-MEC. De las exportaciones de México a EEUU, solamente cumplen con las reglas del T-MEC: el 1% de las exportaciones de hierro y acero, el 33.05% de las

can everyone please publish their tariffs lists as a downloadable csv file from now on please

Erica York Median Chinese retaliation doc: here is a 2-page PDF of the HS codes we’re targeting Median Canadian retaliation doc: here is a webpage with 5836847 items of farm products we are retaliating against. Each of them is $5 and has no corresponding code in US trade databases

My new Capitolism @TheDispatch is a long-overdue explainer on the much-maligned and widely-misunderstood trade deficit - and what it does & doesn't actually tell us about the US economy: "Things Everyone Should Know About Trade Deficits - The Dispatch thedispatch.com/newsletter/cap…

This is what supply chain integration looks like in one photo of one part of a car.

I would argue J.P. Morgan Asset Management made this chart in such a way as to make it look like reciprocity toward the US is way lower than it is. Ordered by degree of distortion: #1) A better graph would have been in log-scale so we can make out all the countries clustered near the origin (I'm

Tariffs still in place: —125% on Chinese imports —25% on steel, aluminum, autos, and non-USMCA goods from Can/Mex —10% on nearly all other imports Tariffs coming: —On copper, lumber, semiconductor & pharma imports —And maybe on other countries, depending how the next 90 days go

Many US exports to China replaceable from other sources quickly. Much of what US imports from China is not since it involves industrial inputs (which can’t be swapped out like soy beans).

New at JIE: "The impact of NAFTA on prices and competition: Evidence from Mexican manufacturing plants", by Felipe Brugués, Ayumu Ken Kikkawa, Yuan Mei (Yuan MEI), Pablo Robles doi.org/10.1016/j.jint…

An administration official tells me this threat likely means only the 25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant trade gets hiked to 35%, and the exemptions and lower energy tariffs remain as they are. BUT, the official cautions, no final decisions on that yet from the President.

~60% of everything the U.S. buys from abroad comes from four trading partners: the EU, Mexico, Canada & China. New tariff rates on their imports, starting Aug. 1: — EU: 30% — Mexico: 30%* — Canada: 35%* — China: 30% *USMCA goods may be exempt, but the decision is not final

Himno del Club de Futbol Monterrey. #80CFM Presentado por @Vidusacasas.