🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

Spread the word. The XII Annual Economía UTDT Conference will take place in Buenos Aires on December 18-19, 2025. Application deadline: August 4th, 2025 Call for papers, submission form, previous programs: tinyurl.com/2y7slexo Scientific Committee: Milena Almagro,

Key finding: We track firm responses to the ongoing trade war. Most American firms report being negatively affected by current and especially the potential of future tariffs imposed by the US government, firms report that they plan to increase prices and rearrange supply chains

📢New podcast on "What is Geoeconomics?" with Cathrin Mohr based on our literature survey that is now forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics. As usual, Tim and the CEPR team did a wonderful job. Thank you so much for the invitation! Long paper here: ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Date…

site updated with march disaggregate #trade here is the implied #tariff on #China check it out on tradewartracker.com

Almost impossible to overstate just how crazy the US trade data -- and the pharmaceutical trade data -- has become. 1/

back from blackout the march #trade data is wild...I'll post about it over the next couple of days the most obvious story is the massive front-running of #imports yoy growth for march is +30 percent, only the rebound out of the pandemic beats this in the data

US tariffs trapped a huge number of goods in China. Some of these goods are trying to get out via third countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. A rise in China's exports to these places offsets about half the drop in China's exports to the US...

Lots of confusion on what US tariffs on China are now. Key point: the two 10% tariff hikes for fentanyl and the 10% universal tariff hike "stack" on top of tariffs from 2018. Factoring in various exclusions, the tariff rate is near 50%. Today's substack: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-are-us-…

📣📣 Call for Papers on Spatial Dynamics 📣📣 Join us for a special Cowles Foundation research conference (Nov 14, 2025) & Journal of International Economics special issue. Deadline: June 30. More info + submissions here: cowles.yale.edu/form/spatial-d…

How do exchange rates and asset valuation shape the U.S. Net International Investment Position? I discuss why recent tariff changes may have limited direct effects, but broader economic tensions could influence the NIIP. St. Louis Fed stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…

What is the optimal macroeconomic tariff when trade is imbalanced? Can a tariff be used to permanently close an aggregate trade imbalance? We (w/Dmitry Mukhin) answer these questions in a new paper: (1/n) itskhoki.com/papers/Optimal…

Tariffs may have limited impact on trade deficits. For the U.S., external imbalances are shaped more by asset valuations and return differentials than by trade flows alone. Two complementary perspectives: 🔗 stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy… 🔗 itskhoki.com/papers/Optimal…

i spent all last quarter teaching the optimal tariff literature... the point below is novel and an important perspective on how tariffs + international asset markets interact Also highlighted in this work by my colleagues... x.com/nberpubs/statu…

Interested in international economics and geopolitics? You may want to consider submitting to this conference. I am looking forward to guest editing the corresponding JIE special issue.

🚨🚨Good news for the EU!! The great Lionel Fontagné & I propose new measures of the potential of trade blocs. An EU application shows that the EU has been very successful, but only half of the potential benefits from the EU have been realized to date. 👇 ideas.repec.org/p/drx/wpaper/2…

Excited to participate in the 2025 Chicago Fed Growth & Development Conference, organized by Gustavo de Souza!

Export restrictions and economic security by Chad P. Bown piie.com/publications/w…

We propose methods to (i) identify the full effects of country-specific policies in the gravity model and (ii) estimate trade elasticities without tariff or price data. A true pleasure to work with Mario and the young talents Angelos Theodorakopoulos and Rebecca Freeman. Thanks! Gravity rules💪

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