The team is in the field, where it should be. It’s very rewarding to see my old crew working closely with my new crew. Together, we’re incredibly strong, that’s for sure.

Great thread. And that’s why I follow, listen closely, and learn from the OSINT community, including Rob Lee.

People who say that international politics is like a game of chess clearly do not play chess.

Thank you Mark Smith and Wilton Park team for another great Christmas conference. Our community’s playing defence right now, but with this house acting as goal-keeper, well, we might come out all right. Until next time.

Colleague at US immigration: - What do you do? - Same as the guy before me, my boss, nuclear non-proliferation. - Like Iran? - Yes - You’re too young for that shit.

A fine elaboration on this matter.

I’ll be sure to remember that while I battle the mutants.

In 2024, ONN expands its risk monitoring efforts with 'Event Horizon' - a regular digest for strategic conflict risk monitoring. Stay informed on risk developments in Asia-Pacific & Euro-Atlantic. Check our first issue and subscribe for regular updates: mailchi.mp/oneearthfuture…

John was also very modest (in his own way). His business card simply stated "sailor" as his profession. I found that wonderful. He'll be missed. Very sorry to hear about this.

The satellite launched on February 9, Cosmos-2575, is said to be a Razbeg small optical reconnaissance satellite. Sun-syncronous orbit suggests that it is. So, I very much doubt that it's about this one

x.com/John_A_Ridge/s…

If all of this is related to Cosmos 2575, and there’s talk about a nuclear payload, I will have a certified brain melt.

Officials tell CNN that the Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapon “remains under development and is not yet in orbit.” cnn.com/2024/02/14/pol…

It depends on the size of the explosion, but a detonation in space could have far more serious consequences than knocking out satellites. If it’s big enough, it’s going to knock out a few things on Earth as well. nytimes.com/2024/02/21/wor…

Happy International Women's Day! 🎉 With both ONN’s inaugural director Laura Rockwood and the current one Andreas Persbo being gender champions, we are committed to supporting women in our field! Read more abt our commitments with Gender Champions In Nuclear Policy: oneearthfuture.org/en/open-nuclea…

TODAY: FRI-ONN NPT side event “A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Nuclear Risks” 🗓️25.07, 15:30-17:00 + RECEPTION 📌Room XXIII, UN Can't join us in person? Tune in to the audio livestream: listen-live.unog.ch/en/meetings/25… Have questions for speakers? Comment below or DM us!

After eleven years, it's time to update my London Underground concentric-circles-and-spokes map. Completely redrawn from centre to edges, it's so much better than before, and more geographically accurate than the official map.

Today we're releasing findings from the largest-ever forecasting survey of nuclear risk experts & superforecasters (151 total), conducted with Open Nuclear Network. The median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 - but identified policies that could cut this risk in half. 🧵

We're releasing findings from the largest-ever nuclear risk forecasting survey of 151 experts & superforecasters w/Forecasting Research Institute . A median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 but identified policies that could halve this risk. Full report: opennuclear.org/open-nuclear-n…

New short explainer - **How** Iran Can Close The Straits Of Hormuz youtube.com/watch?v=VTly35…