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The area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic is still firing some thunderstorms along the ITCZ. Some development remains possible, although recent model runs look more elongated, and the environment is pretty marginal overall.

Been working on this for a while - thanks to The Hill for publishing this op ed I worked on talking about the importance of NOAA's hurricane forecasts, including the research that underpins it all. Thanks to the writing team that helped as well! There has been some promising

With the recent Atlantic warming, I thought it would be interesting to compare the global anomalies (detrended as always) with all the years in the OISST dataset. Few thoughts: -NW Atlantic warmth really stands out compared to most analog years. This subtropical warmth will

Florida’s excessively hot weekend is due to this due to this a nearly record breaking heat dome. Deep red indicates values higher than the 99.5% threshold for this time of year. For you statistics gurus, it’s about 3.5 standard deviations/ sigma from the mean. Thanks Tomer Burg for

Looks like this area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ was tagged as Invest #94L. May bring enhanced showers to the Lesser Antilles this week, but pretty low chances of development overall. The environment in the Caribbean is pretty hostile (as is typical for July), with strong

I'm kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic despite favorable MJO. Background stability is pretty hostile this year, and will suppress convection even if/when shear is more favorable. If we get Pacific MJO at peak (TBD but that's what current

Besides #94L, the wave over West Africa might be one to watch for a brief spin-up in the MDR later this week as it interacts with a Kelvin Wave. It'll face a lot of the same issues as #94L, though, with a lot of dry air lurking to the north and fairly fast trade wind flow into

#94L is still producing some scattered showers this morning, but nothing very organized. It's heading into a higher-shear environment in the Eastern Caribbean, so further development seems unlikely. Still probably at least couple of weeks away from the MDR potentially being

This +NAO configuration tends to cause issues for the Atlantic in a few ways. One of the big ones is sending dry air down into the MDR. You can see one prominent example on the Day 10 GFS. Along with the background stability, this is going to make it very difficult to get

Wavebreaking? High latitude warmth? Slowest start to the season since 2009? All we need is FSU to get good at football again and it'll be 2013 all over again!

I think for the next 2-3 weeks (til mid August or so), the best bet for any Atlantic development would be in the SW Atlantic (between the Greater Antilles and Bermuda), either from a system pinching off a trough/front, or maybe a strong wave that survives and makes it into this

Rainy morning across S FL and the Keys today as an upper low moves west under a ridge. Should help eliminate some of the remaining drought across Dade/Broward, where we've been a little light on seabreeze storms this month (with the strong Bermuda High). Better to have this

Still pretty quiet overall in the Atlantic...a tropical wave in the ITCZ has some spin to it, but is pretty convectively-challenged overall. GFS shows a little bit of development as it approaches the Caribbean islands, while the ECMWF shows very little. ECMWF and its ensemble

2010s: Happy Hour GFS 2020s: Happy Hour AIFS Welcome to the future!

Happy to have Michael with us this summer as a Lapenta student - he did a really interesting project on the tornado outbreak during Hurricane Milton.

Thursday evening discussion on the state of the Atlantic tropics as we round out July. Mixed signals with some large-scale hostile conditions out there, but also hints of things waking up as we head into August. youtu.be/8JhbbEBoMv8

Pretty decent agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for a strong wave to develop some over the MDR next week as it interacts with the ITCZ. Factors favoring development: -The wave seems pretty low latitude initially with a solid moisture field. -A Kelvin Wave/MJO pulse moving in

Good thread from Andrew on some of the factors to consider for potential MDR development next week from that wave I mentioned.

00z vs. 12z Euro illustrates one of the big challenges for potential development in the MDR late next week: maintaining convection. Stability and dry air will make it challenging for the system to do that, which could limit how much it develops before the islands. That'll be a

Looks like the large area of SST > 29C in the Southwest Atlantic is one of the largest in recent years. Comparing to last year shows how much of a different SST state we're in this year. 2024 had incredible warmth near the NE Caribbean, this year is just average. This