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Happy to announce that I'll be joining the Coinbase Investor Relations Earnings Roundtable with Brian, Alesia, and the fantastically open IR team for the 2nd straight quarter tomorrow afternoon. Drop any questions you have for me to relay.

$UNH has been on my watchlist for a minute. The price is getting silly. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. I think early August is going to be awful for stonks, so I'm in no hurry to gamble.

The virtual stalling-out in payroll growth in the past three months has been a recession predictor with 100% accuracy over the past six decades. Score a win for Bowman and Waller, whose crystal balls are clearer than the rest of the FOMC pack.

The Base app waitlist is over 700k 🧐

My question at the Coinbase IR Roundtable: Q: Will Coinbase ever provide more color on the nature of equity and token holdings in your Ventures portfolio? A: Most of the Ventures investments have been seed stage. The few larger investments have been aimed at businesses with

The most exciting takeaway from our chat was Brian Armstrong mentioning a desire to build a product in the capital formation space. There is so much potential here from both debt to equity to lifecycle (refi/ipo) funding. Underwriter fees are considerable, usually 1-2%.

What do you guys think about this sort of UI for Aion's agent cloud hosting service? Just a WIP at this point. Not sure if we should bring in the professional designers or just let me cook something lol.

My July report card

Being an economist is a brutal biz. Data is a reflection of objective reality. Economists project that data onto how markets should be priced. But that's antithetical to how markets actually work. Markets are a projection of an incomplete comprehension of that data through

You may be surprised to learn that, for Las Vegas Strip casinos, only 26% of revenue comes from gaming. 20 years ago, that number was 42%. The city has been diversifying away from gaming for decades. Vegas is built on Bertrand Russell's core human desires: acquisitiveness,

This man is 42 years old. Frens don't let frens snort shitcoins.

Watching this video makes me reflect on how fortunate we all are in modern life. It's kinda sick that we're also so unhappy about it. But philosophy since time immemorial has labeled theft as wrong. The one thing that ties us together more than language is money. And that money

"Run it hot" is a fancy way of saying that we will ruin the purchasing power of your income to pump up asset prices.

We finally decided on the first wedge of attack for Aion's consumer mobile app. Until now, I've been trying to explain the value of agentic networks to people while their eyes gloss over. When you're building a platform, it's hard to answer the question: "what does your product

Jack Dorsey is Satoshi Nakamoto.

I think market pain has just started. August isn't going to be pretty. Does that mean a recession is coming? Still unclear to me, but I personally rate the chance at 35%, up from 20% a month ago. Leading indicators (yields, housing, etc) have already gone into recession

Some interesting food trivia I've learned from being to Japan several times: Japan invented fortune cookies and China invented ramen. Ikura (salmon roe) is far cheaper and of better quality in the US. Genuine A5 Wagyu is cheaper in the US. (how?!) Fruit is astoundingly

I don't flex often, but when I do, it's usually when the Internet era's greatest computer scientist follows.