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Ouch... "Sputnik-S" is the Russian satellite that allegedly can carry a nuclear weapon. So, the idea is to hit Plesetsk? Or to shoot down the launcher during boost phase? "Destroy it in orbit" using what? (It's from Sullivan profile in WaPo wapo.st/3W37xAS)

NEW: imagery for Maxar Technologies shows an excavator and vehicles near Iran’s Fordo nuclear site. The site was bombed a week ago by US bunker busters.

In today's Financial Times, I reflect on the implications of the joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran for a fragile and bruised nonproliferation regime on.ft.com/45Jehd3

Wait until you read about Tommy Franks planning strikes in Iraq …

After several weeks of increasingly personalised attacks by Iranian officials and media, Rafael Mariano Grossi this week gently pushed back on Face The Nation. “Well- I, to an extent, I understand. They have been under attack. But, really, who can believe that this conflict happened…”-1

As a policy matter, I think Trump officials are smart to lie about the destruction of Iran's nuclear program to avoid being drawn further into this shit show. As a professional with a reputation to uphold, I have to point out that these statements are untrue. It's a weird time.

This is probably true. We tend to focus on what we can count, even when the things we can't may matter more. Iran has been months away from the bomb for almost twenty years. Politics have always been more important than technical factors.

We are at the leaking SIGINT phase of the very public damage assessment debate.

Caine: The dimensions of the concrete caps at Fordow are classified. Trump: They were half the size of a refrigerator door! (I don’t see any harm in what Trump said, to be fair.)

I think Rafael Mariano Grossi has done an incredible job. It takes some gall for Iran to say that because they were caught violating their CSA, refused to answer all outstanding PMDs, and were enriching to 60%, and the IAEA reported what they saw, the IAEA was in the wrong. Baffling.

🔴 Iran president announced the suspension of cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). #BREAKING #BreakingNews‌

The administration has argued that the destruction of Iran's uranium metal production lines at Isfahan will set its nuclear-weapon program back by "years." At Arms Control Wonk, I argue it may not even set Tehran back by months. Link in next post.

Beyond the latest guesstimates from U.S. officials on potential nuclear damage, keep your eye on the IAEA-Iran standoff. If anything is going to turn the fragile ceasefire back to conflict in the near-term, it’s Agency access. It’s plausible IAEA access is over for good.

In the 1940s, the chemistry lab at Iowa State College at Ames, which had metallurgical equipment from the 1920s, produced 50 kg of natural uranium metal per week for the Manhattan Project.

An IAEA team of inspectors today safely departed from Iran to return to the Agency headquarters in Vienna, after staying in Tehran throughout the recent military conflict.