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The Lib Dems are polling roughly in-line with their 2019 vote share, and yet there are projections they could double, triple or even quadruple their total seat count. Here I look at why that is: theguardian.com/politics/artic…

Here's how the seats could fall according to the latest polls - the Tories could lose half their seats. But the votes are very very tight.

🚨New analysis from The Royal Society UK visa costs for researchers: 🫣 21x higher than France (Talent passport for researchers) 😱34x higher than Germany (Scientific visa) 😬Have increased by 126% since 2019 while other countries have made theirs cheaper royalsociety.org/news-resources…

Just 21 of these Tory big beasts are confidently projected to keep their seats - analysis with Alex Clark theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

Jacob Rees-Mogg: ❌ Jeremy Hunt: ❌ Penny Mordaunt: ❓ Suella Braverman: ✅ Which Tory big beasts are safe — and which are goners? Ashley Kirk and I have visualised what the election forecasts are saying in our latest for The Guardian theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

📉 14 Years of the Tories in charts 📉 🏘️ Sunak and Starmer want people to know the feeling of "getting the keys to their first flat": here is why young Britons don't feel optimistic about that happening: theguardian.com/politics/artic… (🧵1/5)

UK general election results 2024: live tracker dlvr.it/T98YHl

Mixed bag of Labour vote gains and losses so far. But it doesn't matter in most counts, when the Conservatives have dropped so far. In some cases Labour are winning when their vote share is down (Vale of Glamorgan, -5.2pts) Follow #GE2024 live results: theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

Very big swing in the first Scottish result of #GE2024

So far, Labour has won 16 seats on a lower vote share than 2019. The most pronounced of these is Walsall and Bloxwich, with a drop of 10.8 points theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

A record Lab majority, but with support down in several regions and dozens of seats relying on a split right-wing vote, the result is a lot more complicated #GE2024 analysis w/ a brilliant team Alex Clark, Pamela Duncan & Carmen Aguilar García theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

Here's another weird consequence of FPTP. Because so many seats had 3-4 competitive parties, it often took a weirdly low vote share to win. The average winning vote share this time was just 42%, down from 54% last time. In SW Norfolk, the winner won with 26% #GE24 The Times and The Sunday Times

Our analysis - after a lot of work and coffee- with Ashley Kirk Pamela Duncan Alex Clark theguardian.com/politics/ng-in… With many interesting lines beyond the Labour victory: record-breaking swings, the parties in second place, the seats Tories "could have won" with Reform's votes

Labour’s landslide means becoming the change the country needs. Sir Keir Starmer has the Commons strength to be daring. That means fulfilling hopes he did little to excite - ⁦The Guardian⁩ view theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

I’ve written about what the industry - including us - may have got wrong this cycle for polling The Times and The Sunday Times yesterday. Ethnic minority sampling, turnout, model attenuation, Shy Tories are all candidates. thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…

The incredible scale of South America's 2024 fires has already resulted in 22-year highest annual total emissions for Brazilian states of Amazonas & Mato Grosso do Sul (incl Pantanal wetland fires) but still mostly average for Mato Grosso (+other Amazon states not shown) 🧵2/2

Very happy to see our investigation into damage in Gaza shortlisted for the innovation category of the British Journalism Award. Great work from Niels de Hoog, @7091lapS, manisha.bsky.social and Elena Morresi 👏 pressgazette.co.uk/press-gazette-…

*NEW* here are the key swings that handed Trump the White House 🗳️🇺🇸 our walkthrough analysis of the 2024 US election is now live on The Guardian. we zoom around a mega swing map to show you detailed shifts in the vote theguardian.com/us-news/ng-int… ft Ashley Kirk @craftworksxyz

Interesting trends from counties that swung to Trump: - Dem strongholds didn't hold, Reps' largely did - Ethnically diverse areas swung to Reps - Education remains the divider More from the great, tireless @craftworksxyz Alex Clark Lucy McCormick & team: theguardian.com/us-news/ng-int…

It was great to speak about our team's work on 2024 elections at the Data Visualization Society meetup. Interesting points made by Julian Burgess and Meike Eijsberg - thanks for organising M and Giacomo Boscaini-Gilroy!