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📢 I published an op-ed with The Spectator on the anticipated effectiveness of ATACMS strikes on Russian soil and potential Russian responses. Key insights: 1. The effectiveness of ATACMS largely depends on the quantity supplied. Although ATACMS has proven effective, Russia has

Great thread on Russia's new "doctrine." Mostly an attempt to shape Western perceptions of an apparently lower Russian threshold for nuclear employment - and thus a higher risk of aiding Ukraine. Playing propaganda with nuclear threats has consequences for Russia though... 1/2

Key points on reports of ICBM launch to Dnipro: ➡️ Stay cautious: Some ICBMs like Topol-M and Yars can reach 800 km. But if it were truly one, 🇷🇺 would’ve had to notify 24 hrs in advance. ➡️ Highly political: 🇷🇺 MFA spokeswoman instructed mid-press conference not to comment.

Ok, two reasons why I think Russia probably used a variant of the long-gestating RS-26 Rubezh IRBM: (1) Russia hinted that it resumed development of the RS-26 this summer and (2) that's what the Ukrainians predicated a day ago, down to the launch site.

Hard to overstate significance. This is *not* about buying everything from America. It's about a transatlantic win-win scenario - when overall defense spending pie gets bigger, everyone benefits. That includes UK, Israel, Turkey. Let's reset after years of petty back & forth.

I wrote about Europe's 'missile renaissance' in this IISS News piece which explores the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) and the political, technical and budgetary challenges needed to be overcome for this aspiration to be viable. A summary: iiss.org/online-analysi…

🚨 L'Institut français des relations internationales et la FRS sont ravis d'annoncer le lancement du Réseau Espace et Stratégie (RES) ! Réservé aux jeunes professionnels de moins de 35 ans intéressés par les questions stratégiques, industrielles et politiques spatiales, le RES abordera les problématiques

Camille Grand and I argue that 🇪🇺 interests at stake in #UkraineRussiaWar extend beyond 🇺🇦. Europeans should agree on the definition of these interests and on the kind of security guarantees they are collectively... 1/2 ecfr.eu/article/ukrain… via ECFR

Slowly and quitely, 🇫🇷 French strategic air forces (FAS) seem to increase their joint training with 🇪🇺European allies. After ☢️ nuclear-capable Rafale deployed to 🇱🇹Lithuania for air policy missions earlier this week, others trained with 🇩🇪German Eurofighter over the 2 countries.

🆕Policy Alert Face à la crise politique française, les Européens doivent montrer qu'ils gardent un front uni en termes de politique étrangère, en particulier sur la défense européenne et le soutien à l'Ukraine Camille Grand, Camille Lons - Leaving X for @camillelons.bsky.so et Pawel Zerka ecfr.eu/article/keepin…

Habemus Prime Minister 🇫🇷 In case you are wondering what’s happening with French politics these days, check out my Q&A with Caroline Grassmuck for Brookings Foreign Policy brookings.edu/articles/what-…

“We want to show that #France is preparing to be with the Syrians for the long term. I’m here to make contact with the de facto authorities in Damascus” says Jean-François Guillaume, French special envoy for #Syria

This is probably the most comprehensive analysis of the Trump-Greenland issue, by my collegue Otto Svendsen CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program csis.org/analysis/seizi…

Congratulations Alexandra Bell on your nomination as President of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists!🌟Your expertise in nuclear disarmament is inspiring, and it’s empowering to see women like you leading in this field. Wishing you the best! nytimes.com/2025/02/03/sci…

This declaration gives hope that Europeans will not remain mere observers, and that they grasp the full extent of the security guarantees that will fall on their shoulders. #Europe #Security #Leadership #Unity

Trump wants denuclearization talks with Russia and China, hopes for defense spending cuts apnews.com/article/trump-…

This is a continental drift - not only an earth quake 1/ Europe is facing an existential security crisis. The U.S. is withdrawing as a political & military leader. What does this mean for Europe’s future? 🧵

"Moscow’s abandonment of non-proliferation principles could signal to other countries that there are fewer consequences for pursuing nuclear weapons, encouraging proliferation around the globe," says Astrid Chevreuil. Find out more: cs.is/4iig2kh

Thrilled to share this article on 'friends with benefits' who undermine the nonproliferation regime, co-authored with Leonie Allard and Nicholas Lokker . Definitely a topic that doesn't get the attention it deserves! ☢️(But I know... lots of hot topics these days!) #NonProliferation

Grateful to @EtienneMarcuz for having me on Let’s Talk Deterrence. We covered: 🇪🇺 Strains on the U.S. extended deterrent 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 The role of UK & French nuclear forces 🔄 Proposals to strengthen European deterrence within the existing framework, not against it. 🎧 Happy listening!