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Capital Economics on the impact of the Albanese government's proposed international student caps: "We calculate that the proposed cap ... will cause education exports to plunge by around two-fifths, shaving off 0.7 percentage points off growth in 2025." afr.com/politics/feder…

🇨🇳's circa 4.5 year-long campaign of economic coercion against 🇦🇺 looks set to conclude in coming months with the planned end of 🦞 restrictions. 🇦🇺 Prime Minister Albanese announces agreement w/ 🇨🇳 Premier Li for "timetable to resume full lobster trade by the end of the year".

🇦🇺 Prime Minister Albanese today announced an agreement w/ 🇨🇳 Premier Li for Beijing to remove its politically motivated trade restriction on 🇦🇺 🦞. What does this mean for 🦞 exporters, 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 trade ties & the broader bilat relationship? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-brief…

Oddly, the 🇦🇺 PM's 🦞 news wasn’t mentioned in the 🇨🇳 gov leader meeting readout, 🇨🇳 MFA didn’t engage much on the issue & many major 🇨🇳 news outlets said little to nothing about it. Doesn’t necessarily mean the 🇦🇺 PM was getting ahead of himself. But it's prima facie peculiar.

The 🇦🇺 parliamentary delegation to 🇨🇳 is slated to visit a solar & wind manufacturer in Beijing. No details of which firm, but I wonder if we'll see 🇨🇳 companies like Beijing Energy Int. or Trina Solar get their sizeable investments in 🇦🇺 approved? linkedin.com/posts/jeromela…

🇦🇺 MPs and senators are visiting 🇨🇳 on the first parliamentary delegation since November 2019. What’s the significance of the visit and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations? BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-brief…

🇦🇺+🇨🇳 have signed a letter of intent & agreed to "deepen bilateral science & tech cooperation". Could be boilerplate agreement/letter of intent, but hard to know with (so far?) limited public details. Here are the 🇨🇳 gov readouts: gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/2… english.www.gov.cn/news/202409/20…

Beijing to Canberra and Back (16 Sep to 13 Oct 2024): 1️⃣ Is it too soon to declare the end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion against 🇦🇺? 2️⃣ Why has 🇨🇳 responded so quietly to the 🦞 news? 3️⃣ Will 🇦🇺 now unwind anti-dumping measures or approve a 🇨🇳 investment? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias-l…

Melbourne is hiring a fixed-term teaching-specialist position in Chinese history for 3 & a half years beginning January. Applicants need to have Australian work rights. Glad to answer questions about the role. jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/918573/…

Pressure to intensify on 🇦🇺 & its allies/partners to sanction 🇮🇱 ministers like Ben-Gvir. Sanctioning 🇮🇱 ministers would be a step change from previous sanctions on some 🇮🇱 settlers/settler orgs. But Ben-Gvir & others appear to be pushing for Gaza annexation & ethnic cleansing.

Beijing has fired back hard at 🇦🇺’s criticism of 🇨🇳’s human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet. What’s likely to happen next? And what does this diplomatic dispute mean for the stabilisation of the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship? BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-brief…

Lots of talk about the potential end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion campaign against 🇦🇺. Yet the latest trade data shows 🇦🇺’s flatlining copper ores & concentrates exports to 🇨🇳. Is 🇨🇳 still imposing trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 copper ores & concentrates? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-data-chi…

🇦🇺+🇨🇳 trade/commerce ministers met yesterday in Shanghai. No mention of 🦞 in 🇨🇳's readout of the meeting, despite losses of $1.9 billion for 🇦🇺 industry since 2020. What does the meeting mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations and 🇦🇺 🦞 + 🥩? BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-brief…

The Albanese government has ruled out 🇦🇺 tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs & other restrictions on 🇨🇳 car technology. But what would a Coalition government do if they win the 2025 federal election? beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-predicts…

🇦🇺’s Anti-Dumping Commission delays to 4 Dec advice on removing measures on 🇨🇳 steel sinks. Delay apparently caused by late submissions & “complexity of matters raised.” 🇨🇳 likely watching closely & could link issue to removal of restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞. industry.gov.au/sites/default/…

🇦🇺 announced today that it'll end anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 stainless steel sinks. 🇨🇳 will be pleased. It could also be a sign that we'll soon see 🇨🇳 take concrete steps to remove enduring trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 live 🦞. industry.gov.au/anti-dumping-c… industry.gov.au/anti-dumping-c…

NEW RESEARCH: A world-first dataset and framework, created by the The Lowy Institute and Benjamin Herscovitch 郝杰明, for understanding every UN member state’s position on the governments in Taipei and Beijing. 🌐interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/one-c…

Beijing claims “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China” is far from a “universal consensus of the international community”. Overall, approximately 26 per cent of UN member states do not take the PRC’s view. Five One-Chinas Benjamin Herscovitch 郝杰明 The Lowy Institute interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/one-c…

This is v v useful from Benjamin Herscovitch 郝杰明 and The Lowy Institute As diplomatic stances on Taiwan become more contested and consequential, this world-first dataset details every UN member state’s position on the governments in Taipei and Beijing. interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/one-c…