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Fascinating new analysis from Erica York that combines the income and economic effects of TCJA permanence with the current tariff regime. Turns out lose the gains from TCJA extension. taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tar…

Awesome. The fiscal problem is an outlay problem.

The other financial shoe finally dropped: Moody’s downgrades US debt below AAA status. Congress should look in the mirror and make a pledge to fix our worsening fiscal condition. wsj.com/economy/centra…

Free Jimmy Lai now!! ncregister.com/commentaries/j…

Here are my views on the May jobs report...epicforamerica.org/the-economy/ar…

Should we be concerned about CBO and its estimation models? Yes, and our focus helps the fine folks at CBO. washingtonstand.com/news/pressure-…

Here is a discussion on Taking Stock of what's happening in the federal statistical system: linkedin.com/events/takings…

Even though federal revenues are up by 6 percent over last year at this time, the deficit still is higher than last year: $160 billion if you don't account for some timing changes and $84 billion if you do. See CBO's latest monthly report: cbo.gov/system/files/2…

A big Amen to that…

⚠️ The Senate’s version of the OBBB expands RECA without clear fiscal offsets. What was originally a one-time program now sets up a budgetary cliff: new claims stop in 2 years, the trust fund ends in 3—guaranteeing pressure for repeated extensions. At a time when the nation’s

🚨 HERE ARE THE FACTS: — The House bill added $72 billion to the deficit with interest costs included. — The Senate version adds $1.3 trillion to the deficit. That’s 1,705% more. — Even without interest costs, it is $651 billion over our agreed budget framework.

Today's Jobs Report points to a healthy labor market, but details matter: half of job growth came from government, there's a possibility of inflation in the wage gains, and the drop in the unemployment rate due in part to a drop in the labor force. epicforamerica.org/the-economy/ep…

Extremely important tax policy development...

I visited this beautiful church in Oswego last year. Congratulations on the new order. instagram.com/p/DK8JKgavgy2/…

There are some important signals in these recent yield changes…

EJF was a cornerstone of reason and a central source for vision in this crazy town. He played a central role in much of my adult life, and I will be for ever grateful for his mentorship. May the soul of the faithful departed rest in peace.

Impressive diagnosis of the second quarter preliminary GDP report from yesterday. Certainly not as robust as the top line number indicated....

Big downward jobs revisions and growth coming mainly from health care are two of the many problematic features of today's jobs report. Read my take on it here: epicforamerica.org/the-economy/ju…

The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read: friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8…

This is such an important finding…