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Rather than hope for a stroke of luck, governments should be working to advance long-term growth by fostering productivity, entrepreneurship, and innovation, in a setting of closer international cooperation. Getting the Global Economy Out of the Slow Lane project-syndicate.org/commentary/glo…

"Cost of net-zero" meets mounting "cost of not-zero"

Financial globalisation has increased wealth inequality. New evidence

increased fragmentation negatively impacts the global economy, with emerging economies suffering more than advanced ones. nber.org/papers/w32638

agricultural productivity in Africa is low. I see the primary cause as being small firms which means there are few opportunities for economies of scale, mechanization and R&D. Climate change is a threat.  Agricultural Productivity in Africa marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…

The left's gains in France and Britain are encouraging. But what kind of a program should the "new" left adopt? My latest. project-syndicate.org/commentary/eco…

- The UK accounted for almost half of world trade in 1808 (48% to be precise) - The US share was 22% in 1948. -China’s world share is a paltry 14% in 2023. Who was most dominant in world trade: UK in 1800, US in 1948, or China today?"linkedin.com/pulse/who-most…

The risks of retaliation, escalation, and trade wars are high, and with them an inefficient and costly deglobalisation. The effects have been limited so far, but I am afraid that the process has just started. core.axa-im.com/research-and-i…

1/5 Klaus Baader: "There seems no evidence of a shift to deglobalisation. And while strategies such as nearshoring or friendshoring are being pursued in various economies, they imply geographic shifts in cross-border trade, not deglobalisation." ft.com/content/7235be… via @ft

A wake up call on supply chain dependence👇 ➡️ US & China diversified their sources ➡️EU concentrated its (on China) ✍️Mary Lovely 🇺🇦 etal Peterson Institute cc: Adam Posen @alanbeattie Simon J. Evenett Dmitry Grozoubinski Beata Javorcik Marion Jansen Simon Lester Soumaya Keynes Barry Eichengreen Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

One of my more out of consensus views -- The US and China haven't really decoupled

The understanding of global trade and trade imbalances has evolved much more rapidly in recent years than I expected. Here is Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform: "“Both China and Germany are economies that under-consume, and that also drives some of

I'd like to remind people of this incredibly important paper debunking negative stereotypes about China's rise in Africa. It finds that Chinese firms in Africa have a positive impact on economic development, capacity building, and innovation.

25 years ago each major US corporate used to have an European counterpart, mainly in Germany and France. Today counterparts of US tech giants are in China and Europe is becoming an open-air museum. What happened?

At the pace of the last 20 years, Europe's weight in the global stock market will head toward 'zero'!

🇪🇺🇺🇸 - European firms are smaller and less profitable than US ones • Europe's lacklustre productivity growth and low R&D expenses mean EU firms are lagging behind US peers • Gap with US is most striking among tech firms, which are twice as profitable and ten times bigger in US

And to reinforce a point that I have made frequently (and increasingly loudly), it is hard for the world to really fragment when the deficits that offset the surpluses of the world's big autocracies are all found in the big democracies ... 4/4

I obviously disagree with Glenn. And more importantly, I don't think he has proved his case (the case that SAFE has improved China's BoP data with its new & untransparent methodology) 1/x

What is behind Europe's productivity problem? A large productivity gap relative to the US in the tech sector & low business dynamism. Two factors driving this: smaller market size and lower access to finance relative to the US. The fix: Deepen the EU single market. Read more

1/9 I usually agree with Martin Wolf, but here I think he is conflating two very different things. The problem with the US role in the global trading system is not that a given unit of manufacturing, over time, employs... ft.com/content/aee57e… via @ft