I look forward to discussing Ukraine macro on Tuesday, following my trip last week to Kyiv.

Just back from the 5th meeting of the US-China Financial Working Group in Shanghai.

My last week serving at Treasury and having this view when leaving work each night. Gonna miss it…

I do not think that the government's formula is an appropriate way to think about reciprocal tariffs. And it is unclear what the note references or doesn’t from my research with Cavallo et al. But I believe our work suggests the value for the “elasticity of import prices to