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We don’t know, but US or Israeli intelligence organizations might. But yes, key materials and technologies—HEU, stockpiles of advanced centrifuges, and the new enrichment site Iran announced—are without safeguards and potentially available for a bomb effort.

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This seems important. Before the U.S strikes on Esfahan, Natanz and Fordow, Maxar Technologies satellite images showed a possible increase in logistics at Fordow - 16 trucks gathered on 19- 20 June with heavy machinery near the entrance to the main facility.

On the 2020 missile strikes: I was recently told by a US official that Iran left its missile telemetry for the strike on Asad air base in Iraq unencrypted as a way of signalling to the US exactly what it was doing.

"I know that battle damage is of great interest. Final battle damage will take some time. But initial battle damaghe assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction," said CJCS Caine.

SIGNIFICANT: Asked if all of Iran's nuclear capabilities at the 3 sites was knocked out, CJCS Caine said it's "way too early for me to comment" on that. -4-

🚨🇮🇷🇷🇺☢️: - Iranian FM Araghchi en route to Moscow now for meetings w/ President Putin. - Russian Dep Security Council Chairman Medvedev says “a number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.”

Noting the use of “deliverable” here. Raises the question of whether the intelligence briefing suggests Iran was close to producing a non-deliverable device.

Welker: Do you have 100% confidence that Iran's nuclear sites were totally destroyed? Vance: I feel confident that we've substantially delayed their development of a nuclear weapon.  Welker: Substantially delayed by years? Vance: I'm not going to get into sensitive

After overnight strikes on Iran, President Trump on Sunday declared the operation a “success,” and said that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” But his early public pronouncements contrast with more cautious assessments by the U.S. and

“The officials also said it appeared Iran had moved equipment, including uranium, from the site.”

Iran also likely still controls a stockpile of advanced centrifuges that it had built and stored but never installed. Sounds like the makings of a great new covert program. Well done guys.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

#Iran Parliament’s National Security Commission approves the bill on suspension of the cooperation with the IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️.

“On the assumption that everything works as it should”

This is false. Iran stored most of the 400 kg of HEU in tunnels at Isfahan. Neither the US nor Israel struck those tunnels. They aren't "buried" although Iran did backfill the tunnel entrances with dirt before the strike. No one knows where the HEU is now.

I spoke with NTI's Eric Brewer and Carnegie's Corey Hinderstein about military action against Iran's nuclear sites, the future of the nuclear program, and broader nonproliferation implications of last week's events. Link below:

open.substack.com/pub/strategics…