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Output gap uncertainty can unintentionally fuel procyclical fiscal policy—undermining gov't credibility and raising sovereign risk. 📄 CAMA Working Paper 27/2025 by Christian R. Proaño and Jonas Dix 🔗 bit.ly/43hjSV5 #FiscalPolicy #Macroeconomics ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

Ever wonder how people figure out what’s happening with inflation? 🤔💸 This CAMA working paper looks at how different consumers learn and update their views as new info rolls in. 🔗 bit.ly/43gqGlX #inflation #macroeconomics ANU Crawford School of Public Policy University of Nottingham Business Network Business & Economics UniMelb

🧵New CAMA WP (29/2025) shows how fiscal dominance shapes sovereign debt strategy. In fiscally dominant regimes, governments extend debt maturity to manage fiscal shocks—highlighting a new maturity structure of debt channel of fiscal dominance. 👉bit.ly/3ERO80J

Warwick McKibbin speaks to ABC News on the US-China agreement to lower tariffs and implement a 90-day pause. Markets remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainty. #TradeWar #Trump 🔗 bit.ly/4kfBJT1 ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

New CAMA working paper (30/2025) examines how economic tradeoffs have changed over time and across countries—especially in the post-pandemic era. 📉🌍 #monpol #centralbank Read more: bit.ly/3YIRAkY ANU Crawford School of Public Policy World Bank

CAMA Shadow RBA Board’s sentiment easing: Now sees a 48% chance a cut is optimal, vs 38% to hold in May 2025. Inflation is easing, the labour market remains steady, and the RBA’s trimmed mean CPI is back within target at 2.9%. #auspol #RBA 🔗 bit.ly/43nmYH5

We're excited to welcome Guido Traficante (Guido Traficante) to CAMA as a Research Associate! His research focuses on Open Economy Macroeconomics. Learn more about his research: bit.ly/4jclJk0 ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

📢 Latest CAMA WP (31/2025): Global GDP per capita projections to 2050 using the G-Cubed model. The paper captures sectoral & global dynamics—factoring in: ⚙️Productivity growth 👵Population ageing 🌍Climate change 👉 bit.ly/4mva1n9 #GlobalGrowth #Macroeconomics

📄 New CAMA WP (32/2025): 🏠 Home purchases drive big jumps in home-related spending—but not in other consumption. This channel explains ~50% of total spending swings over the housing cycle (panel data + model). 🔗 bit.ly/3HOKFkj #Housing #Macroeconomics

AMR threatens global health and economic stability. In a new WP, Fernando & McKibbin use the G-Cubed model to show AMR—worsened by climate & demographic trends—could cut global growth. A One Health approach delivers major economic gains. 🔗 bit.ly/3FPSMwy #HealthEcon

📄 CAMA WP 33/2025: MM Alam uses a SVAR model to show commodity price spikes & exchange rate shocks worsen Bangladesh’s fiscal balance 🇧🇩. Debt risks rise under global rate hikes & BDT depreciation (2024–28). 🔗 bit.ly/3HF6we5 #Macroeconomics #FiscalPolicy

🚨 Welcome to CAMA, Jonathan Benchimol Jonathan Benchimol🎗️! He joins CAMA as a Research Associate with the Finance and the Macroeconomy program and Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program. ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

Dr Syeda Arooj Naz discusses how Islamic finance can support crisis management and economic recovery in developing economies through faith-based, resilient financial tools. Read more 🔗 bit.ly/4jZHgg1 #IslamicFinance #Pakistan ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

How much attention do people really pay to the economy? CAMA WP 34/2025 by Jonathan Benchimol🎗️, Lahcen Bounader & Mario Dotta estimates attention parameters in 22 OECD countries using a behavioral NK model—showing how inattention drives macro dynamics. 📊 bit.ly/4loOs6A

📉 Trump’s 2025 tariffs sank US stocks & the dollar—driving capital outflows abroad. New research (McKibbin et al.) finds slower US growth, higher inflation & job losses in manufacturing and agriculture. 🔗 bit.ly/3TcLYMv ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

Highly interesting! "What Do Central Bankers Talk About? Evidence From the BIS Archive" by Martin Feldkircher, Petr Koráb, and Viktoriya Teliha. "This paper analyzes the evolution of central bank topics using a corpus of over 20,000 speeches spanning nearly three decades and a

Watch Warwick McKibbin on ABC’s Four Corners – Trading in Chaos. How Trump’s tariffs backfired on the U.S. economy—and what they mean for Australia. 📺 bit.ly/4et3JRz #TrumpTariffs #TradeWar #GlobalEconomy ANU Crawford School of Public Policy ANU Media

✍️CAMA Working Paper 36/2025 by Omer Majeed introduces a unified framework to understand institutional persistence and change through the lens of societal norms. Read more 👉bit.ly/3TkJVGs #Institutions #BehaviouralEconomy #Norms ANU Crawford School of Public Policy

CAMA congratulates Warwick McKibbin on his new role as Emeritus Distinguished Professor 🎉

On CNBC’s The Global Reset, Warwick McKibbin unpacks Trump’s tariffs, the mega tax bill & risks for emerging markets 🌍📉 🎥 Watch: bit.ly/44Atkne #GlobalEconomy #TradePolicy #Tariffs ANU Crawford School of Public Policy ANU Media Peterson Institute