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.Aaron MacLean examines China's growing nuclear arsenal and how the US should respond to this rising threat with Daniel Blumenthal and Kyle Balzer. Listen to the latest School of War ➡️ podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-…

AEI's Daniel Blumenthal: China’s displays of military power should not be dismissed as mere theater. nytimes.com/2025/02/28/wor…

Great piece as always by American Enterprise Institute's Daniel Blumenthal in 19FortyFive that just went up #Ukraine #Russia - 19fortyfive.com/2025/03/how-ch…

If Russia "wins the peace" in Ukraine it will pressure the Baltics as well. China's assessment that a power shift is underway during which US power substantially declines will only grow, leading to ever more risky Chinese behaviors. 19fortyfive.com/2025/03/how-ch…

"A swift end to US support for Ukraine, hastening the war's end on terms favorable to Russia, will be the payoff for Xi's big bet on Putin. [Xi will believe] the door has opened to a reshaping of borders ... through territorial conquest." Daniel Blumenthal 19fortyfive.com/2025/03/how-ch…

Those arguing for a rapid end of the war in Ukraine on terms unfavorable to Kyiv (if necessary) say they do so in the name of peace. Here, the brilliant Daniel Blumenthal makes a strong case that the opposite outcome--a much broader war--is more likely. 19fortyfive.com/2025/03/how-ch…

If #Ukraine is pressured into an unjust and unfavorable peace, the PRC wins--Beijing will hold two dangerous beliefs 1) Their assessment that #Russia will prevail was correct; 2) Russia owes #China a debt that can be called in a future Western Pacific conflict.

#PRC is set to win the #Ukraine war. There will be no "reverse" Nixon--unlike the Sino-Soviet split the incentives align to justify a continued Moscow-Beijing alliance -- Xi and Putin will be on a roll, causing a rupture in a US alliance, and looking to further undo the US

None of the conditions that led to a Cold War Sino-Soviet split obtain today. Then Mao feared Moscow's ideological laxity, the two were skirmishing at the border, they split over Vietnam. Today Xi-Putin are aligned on the fundamentals -- the US and the alliance system must go.

How China Could ‘Win’ the War in Ukraine and Dominate Asia - Daniel Blumenthal for 19FortyFive - Friend of the show Dan Blumenthal makes a case that a rapid end of the war in Ukraine on terms unfavorable to Kyiv is more likely to lead to a broader war rather than long-term

A few interesting tidbits from INDOPACOM Commander Admiral Paparo's recent testimony. First, he puts China's warship production at a ratio of "6-to-1.8" to ours, or about 3.3 to 1.

On the topic of SLCM-N, he gives a full-throated endorsement. Of note, this is not the STRATCOM commander, but the theater commander that might actually need to use something like this (or have it to deter the other side's use of something similar).

Thought provoking piece. Mark Stokes & I were deeply involved in efforts to transform the Taiwan military. Slow change. Taiwan will not get there w/out a doubling of US training opportunities for a core of Taiwan officers. US dithering as much to blame. warontherocks.com/2025/04/taiwan…

Check out our update this week -- the PRC celebrated Victory Day with Russia, showing no daylight between the two countries' plans to upend the world order. Xi lauded Putin's support for annexing Taiwan. aei.org/articles/china…

Russia congratulated North Korean soldiers who fought for them at Kursk on Victory Day. Meanwhile Kim Jong-un is parroting Russian propaganda lines about fighting Ukrainian "Nazis" and celebrating economic cooperation with Moscow. x.com/DAlexBlumentha…

Recall petitions in Taiwan are not going well for the KMT which has resorted to systemic signature forgery on legislator recall petitions. Still the DPP may struggle to regain the LY as many recalls are in KMT-heavy districts. x.com/DAlexBlumentha…

.Daniel Blumenthal and I have a report out today. We make the case that a PRC invasion of Taiwan is just one threat on a broad spectrum of risk -- and that PRC's nuke buildup will enable its ongoing campaign to "decouple" the US from Asia-Pacific short of a great-power war. 1/

In recent years, China has undertaken a vast nuclear force buildup. In a new report, Kyle Balzer and Daniel Blumenthal argue that China is attempting to use nuclear breakout to weaken the web of US alliances to its east and break out of its continental isolation. 🧵

Terrific weekend workshop on the lessons from WWII campaigns in the Indo-Pacific for contemporary defense planners. Many thanks to Aaron MacLean & Daniel Blumenthal for the invite. (I discussed the fall of Singapore).

Coming later this year in School of War miniseries form!