Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth). I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉

In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby. Turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - but still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024.

"For the first time ever, a Farage-led party has demonstrated that it can win a parliamentary by-election through the front door, not via defection or protest alone". Damian Lyons Lowe and Vasil Lazarov of Survation. on Runcorn: #LocalElections2025 labourlist.org/2025/05/runcor…

Martin Baxter's LE model is looking like it caught the major dynamics well:

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 26 (-1) RFM 26 (+3) CON 22 (-) LD 12 (-1) GRN 7 (-) OTH 6 (-1) F/w 30 April - 2 May 2025. Changes vs 30 Jan.

Ahead of the locals, I shared some thoughts with Alexandra Rogers in that Reform could pose a real threat to Labour in "post-industrial" areas potentially receptive to a message of "protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency". Labour should be wary of an

👀 New poll by Survation. for True North has Reform UK Scotland as main oppo at Holyrood w/ The SNP winning comfortably What Scotland Thinks seat projections Con                 13 Lab                  18 LibDem           10 SNP                 58 Green              8 Reform            21

New Scotland Polling for True North. Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention: SNP: 33% (-3) LAB: 19% (-3) REF: 19% (+5) CON: 11% (-2) LD: 11% (+2) GRN: 5% (-) 14 point SNP lead. Changes vs 22/04/25

New Survation polling shows the effect of Reform’s disruptive rise in Scotland Almost 1 in 5 Labour voters are switching to Reform, while 42% of Conservative voters in the 2021 Holyrood Election would now vote for the party. Read more: survation.com/new-survation-…

Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland? More than 1 in 5 (21%) voters that selected Labour in the 2024 general election are intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 (27%) Conservative voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Fred Power up

Competency is no longer a priority. Voters are willing to try something – anything – new, just as long as it can induce a faith in what they are led to believe will be a better future. Read more analysis from our researcher Chris Rej here: survation.com/reforms-poll-l…

Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:

Survation is hiring! We're looking for a Client Development Executive to join our London team. 📍 Hybrid (3 days in office) 💼 Full-time, permanent 📆 Start ASAP – rolling interviews Apply with CV & cover letter: [email protected] More info 👉 survation.com/survation-is-r…

Kremlin: Putin said Russia ready to keep talking on Ukraine forexlive.com/news/kremlin-p…

NEW: Our latest poll of full- and part-time workers found only a third think their organisation is ready to take advantage of AI, though significant disparities include: - 58% of those in tech, media, or communications reporting that their organisation is ready to take advantage

Survation July Newsletter: Fresh Ideas, New Insights, and Looking Ahead Whether it’s exploring the hopes and anxieties around AI in the workplace, tracking the transition of sustainability leaders in finance, highlighting how many women in London feel unsafe in their own city,

To beat Reform, should Labour concentrate on providing a platform to unite those leaning Green & LibDem? I discuss what the market research says on this, and more, with polling guru Damian Lyons Lowe politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/pol…

I break down the branding of Jeremy Corbyn & Zarah Sultana's new "Your Party." The orange, the slogan, the logo. Plus, my advice on why they should never change the name. politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/27/you…

Rhetoric over the years has clearly hardened British anti-immigration views. But there is still scope for pro-immigration voices to enter the fray. Chris Rej considers how such views could enter the debate and gain a foothold: wp.me/p1cU9i-7lY 4/5