⏱️ 2-min clip: Companies have been meeting demand by running down cheaper, older inventory—holding back tariff-driven inflation and boosting profit margins. But that game can’t last. With demand still strong, they’ll soon face a choice: accept lower margins or pass costs to

⏱️ 1-min clip: Companies can’t keep shrinking inventories forever. With demand still strong, they’ll soon have to either accept lower profit margins or pass tariff costs to consumers. July’s surge in producer prices could be the first warning of higher inflation—challenging

Global semiconductor sales are set to jump 15% this year, driven by $150B in AI chips. But here’s the catch: 80% of those sales are NVIDIA—and just 4 giants (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta) will account for HALF of them. Deep pockets = monopoly power in the AI race. I break

Microsoft is plowing 50% of its operating income into AI. Alphabet? 70%. These are massive bets—and they only pay off if AI revenues explode soon. Why? Because those $30k–$60k chips depreciate fast. Wall Street only sees growth potential. But an MIT report warns: the

The AI battle line has been drawn. 🇺🇸 U.S. wants to control every choke point in the supply chain to keep China behind. 🇨🇳 China is betting on open-source to erode America’s moat and turn AI into a commodity. Wall Street is betting the U.S. wins—but what if it’s wrong? I break

Washington is racing to lock down the future of AI. From Trump’s 100% tariffs on chip imports to reports of the U.S. taking a strategic equity stake in Intel—it’s clear America is determined to win the tech race at any cost. But can government intervention really secure

If Big Tech’s AI investments pay off, U.S. economic power will grow even more concentrated. For 50 years, innovation has been the cornerstone of American exceptionalism. But China is mounting its most serious challenge yet to U.S. tech leadership. I explain what’s at stake in

The NASDAQ 100 has tracked global semiconductor sales with a 64% correlation. Today’s chip boom—driven by AI demand—began in Nov 2023 and is already the 4th longest cycle in 30 years. The record? The dot-com bubble at 29 months. How long can this cycle run before it cracks? 🔗

Microsoft is investing 50% of its operating income into AI. Alphabet? 70%. These are massive bets. For them to pay off, AI revenue must explode fast—because those $30k–$60k chips will depreciate quickly as newer models arrive. How risky is this gamble? I explain in my latest

Big Tech isn’t just buying $30k–$60k AI chips because they can—but because nobody else can. They rent out this computing power at huge premiums, betting the returns outweigh the cost. But that’s only part of the story. If these bets succeed, U.S. tech monopolies tighten their

Big Tech’s AI chip binge isn’t just about renting out computing power at huge premiums. Their deeper bet: control the bulk of global AI capacity → strengthen monopolistic power → concentrate U.S. economic dominance. If these investments pay off, the stakes go far beyond

The MIT report is sobering: hyperscalers are pouring billions into AI that may not be ready for primetime. For these bets to pay off, AI revenues must explode fast—before today’s $30k–$60k chips depreciate as newer models arrive. Yet Wall Street shrugs. Microsoft’s CapEx nearly

What could go wrong with the AI boom? A new MIT report found that 95% of enterprise AI pilots show no P&L impact. 60% of firms tested AI systems → 20% reached pilot → just 5% hit production. High adoption. Low transformation. If OpenAI takes another 2 years to roll out

Microsoft’s CapEx has nearly tripled in under 3 years—but depreciation barely moved. Wall Street doesn’t care. Investors are fixated on growth potential, not the cost to achieve it. But can AI revenues justify these massive bets before the bill comes due? 🔗 Full analysis:

Donald Trump wants it all: 🍰 Big tax cuts without big deficits 🍰 High tariffs without high interest rates To make it happen, he’s launched nothing short of a hostile takeover of the Fed. But can he succeed—or will economics catch up with him? In my latest video, I break down

Trump’s strategy is clear: ➡️ Big tax cuts ➡️ High tariffs ➡️ Loose fiscal policy Put it all together and one outcome is inevitable: inflation. For now, inventories mask the pain. But with holiday restocking, prices—or profits—will pay. Even presidents can’t escape economics:

TRUMP VS POWELL: THE FED SHOWDOWN Organic Tweet: Trump just fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook—and claims he’ll soon have a Fed “majority.” But Powell may stay until 2028 to defend Fed independence. If he does, he could be the only person able to stop Trump’s takeover. In my latest

Trump says Lisa Cook committed mortgage fraud—and he’s using that claim to justify firing her. The key question: will the Supreme Court decide this amounts to fraud strong enough to uphold Trump’s firing? In my latest video, I unpack the legal stakes—and what Trump’s fight with

2-year Treasury yields plunged after Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook—nearly breaking May’s low. Markets now see a higher chance of aggressive Fed rate cuts. But inflation is set to rise, and once above 3%, the Fed—not Trump—has the upper hand. In my latest video, I explain

The Fed’s statement after Trump fired Lisa Cook was unusually blunt: governors serve fixed terms and can only be removed for cause. If push comes to shove, Powell may be the only person able to defend the Fed’s independence. In my latest video, I explain why Powell could be the