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Some great panels and papers here

Where the tariff revenue came from in May, with tariff revenue from goods by country of origin. $214 billion tax increase (annualized).

Effective tariff rate, annualized imports/tariff revenues, by country. 2024 versus May 2025

Step 1 in tariff incidence is whether foreign prices fall or not. If not, US bears the burden of them. Then it’s just a question of whether labor or capital bears the burden. Lower profits could mean lower shareholder returns. Could also mean less hiring and burden on labor

I have been waiting to write this piece for a long time. I think people are misinterpreting the lessons from the China Shock open.substack.com/pub/agglomerat…

The (more or less) flat-lining of the red line in recent years is a success story in my view. I imagine Brad wants the red line to drop, but a rough leveling off is meaningful on its own.

For those who don’t know. Never had his Pulitzer pulled en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Du…

I don't understand the new 50% copper tariffs. They're not going to jumpstart US production, aren't targeted to countries in which we're in a trade war, and will drive up prices on a wide range of essential goods. A couple mines in the US are world-class and economic without the

Ben Jones NBER Let me highlight in particular our Tuesday 3:30-5pm panel discussion on tax policy and innovation with Glenn Hubbard Donald Schneider Tim Simcoe Stefanie Stantcheva, moderated by Ben Jones

Why is Manufacturing Productivity Growth So Slow? Self recommending. enghinatalay.github.io/manufacturing.…

Challenge for the capex outlook. Here's capex expectations 6 months ahead. As was the case in 2018, after the boom in capex expectations tariffs & uncertainty around them dampened capex. Same is happening now.

Zooming in and averaging capex expectation series. Tariffs will dampen the capex tailwind from OBBB. x.com/DonFSchneider/…

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) doesn't include imports. Tariffs only indirectly affect PPI through later stages of the production process.

Meanwhile, the CPI data we got yesterday show clear evidence that tariffs are affecting the prices of import-exposed goods. x.com/ernietedeschi/…

Imploring people to only tweet confidently about things you understand. Second, as matter of good staffing if you want to own this stat on the way up be prepared to own it on the way down. So be careful latching onto any one data point.

BLS's import price indices explicitly do not include tariffs. So this chart is actually making the exact opposite point: foreign producers have likely eaten very little if any of the cost of US tariffs in the form of lower prices. 1/2

Who wants to tell him that the import price index measures the pre-tariff price? If foreigners were eating the cost of (roughly) 10% tariffs, pre-tariff import prices would be down 10%. They're not. Therefore Americans are paying basically all of the tariffs.