🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

This is the most important thing you could read today if you want to understand what's happening in the economy. Government and Healthcare expansion, with the aging population and low birthrate all but guarantee slower, less dynamic economy, low interest rate environment.

Crowding Out The Private Sector "It’s clear that the increasing size of government has disproportionately harmed the more productive private sector labor market. Job growth is a dismal 0.6%, aggregate hours growth is just 0.9%, and real weekly earnings have fallen short of

Recessions are always driven by residential construction or manufacturing. Residential leads in almost all cases, which is what we see today, although the magnitude of the decline remains small...for now. This was a key topic in our June Business Cycle Trends Update.

How much money does the government spend per person, adjusted for inflation (2025 dollars)? 1965: $10,400 1975: $15,500 1985: $18,400 1995: $20,100 2005: $23,700 2015: $25,800 2025: $31,000 *this federal, state and local government spending per capita, adjusted for inflation.

Is it sustainable for an economy to invest in intellectual property but not physical assets like structures and equipment? Can you invest in AI (IP) without more grid capacity (structures)? What are the implications of robust IP investment but depreciating physical assets?

Residential employment is becoming more remodeling and less new builds.

Of the new homes listed for sale, 62% are in the South Census region.

Why does the average consumer feel worse off? Because 41% of consumer spending goes to: housing, utilities, healthcare, medications, and insurance. This was 16% in 1947, 30% in 1980, and 35% in 1990. Fewer consumer dollars are left for true discretionary spending.

With housing affordability a primary issue, should the Fed be holding mortgage-backed securities?

The 52-week rolling average of NSA jobless claims ticked down in recent weeks.

Net investment as a % of GDP has collapsed from over 12% in the 1960s to just 4–5% today. We’re eating the seed corn and calling it growth.

I write blog posts almost every week on key Business Cycle trends. This week we dove into real money supply and the impact of an ongoing contraction on the housing market. You can read that post here: open.substack.com/pub/epbresearc…

When using money supply as a leading indicator, should you include money market funds? We say no in this post 👇 Although a healthy debate emerged.