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I'm happy to see that my paper `Expectations, Infections and Economic Activity', co-authored with Miguel Godinho de Matos, Francisco Lima, Sergio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt, has been published, ahead-of-print, in the Journal of Political Economy journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/72…

The Yemeni Air Force has gone on alert.

Has the decline in manufacturing been the catastrophe portrayed by various politicians? Hardly, writes Martin S Eichenbaum on.wsj.com/3BCDvMY

Factories Aren’t the Future wsj.com/opinion/factor…

Don’t Glorify Manufacturing Jobs whathappensnextin6minutes.com/p/dont-glorify…

The relationship between food prices and median nominal wages may have shaped people’s perceptions of how well the economy is working for them.

2024 may also be remembered as the year U.S. fiscal exuberance died. post-mortem 🧵 on how we got here. Right now, with the 10 year US Treasury yield trading well above 4.5% and the federal government spending roughly the equivalent of the defense budget just on interest

A fantastic session asking whether there is a “core of usable Macroeconomics we should all believe in” with contributions from Adrien Auclert, Martin S Eichenbaum, Jonas Fisher, Bart Hobijn, Alessandro T. Villa, and Ayse Imrohoroglu. Worth reading and rereading the papers!

An indictment of rational expectations, or at least evidence of the overwhelming importance of priors

Hard to argue with the WSJ editorial page.

Ronald Reagan on Free trade youtube.com/watch?v=Tp1T7k…

The response of banks' net interest margin to monetary policy shocks is state dependent, from @eichmartin, Federico Puglisi, @sergiorebelo6, and Mathias Trabandt nber.org/papers/w33523

I am so tired of posting this chart

The decline in manufacturing workers as a share of US employment has been declining for nearly 100 years or more, while the share of service-providing jobs has simultaneously increased. That shift from factory to service jobs has been accompanied by increased wages, higher median

Here's a link to my op-ed about how President Trump has given Canada (and other countries) a unique opportunity to reverse its brain drain to the U.S. financialpost.com/opinion/opinio…

Putting the manufacturing debate in perspective

A brief interview with Solidad O'Brien on manufacturing and my experience as a steel worker matteroffact.tv/can-america-re…

Different economies all follow similar trajectories. As they develop, they move away from agriculture, and they eventually move away from manufacturing, towards service sector domination.