Argentinas 'iron law' (Calvo & Murillo): Non Peronists don't survive in office. Macri cracked it, Milei's is trying to shatter it. With approval hovering near 50% despite brutal austerity, Milei's chances look good but it's a long way til the '28 elections #Argentina #Milei

The EAD at work! How Orsi navigates the political moment is crucial for the Frente Amplio's long-term success.

Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum is currently riding the presidential honeymoon wave, just as predecessors did. But political science tells us this rarely endures. Can she defy history? 🌊📈🤔#MexicanPolitics #CostOfRuling #PoliticalScience #Mexico #Governance #ExecutiveGovernance

📈Zelenskyy's approval soared to a record breaking 90% after Russia's 2022 invasion. But by 2024, due to war fatigue, his ratings fell.📉 With the war raging on and martial law till November, how long can he remain his compatriots' support? 🤔 #Zelenskyy #Ukraine #UkrainePolitics

🚨 Mark Carney surges! 🇨🇦📈 His approval jumps from 41.2% to 52% amid strong pushback against Trump’s trade threats. Canadians are rallying behind his steady, principled leadership. What’s driving this momentum? #MarkCarney #CanadianPolitics #PollingTrends

What' effect will the head of BLS have?👉 "When Does the Public Get It Right? The Information Environment and the Accuracy of Economic Sentiment" - Ryan E. Carlin, Timothy Hellwig, Gregory J. Love, Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo, Matthew M. Singer, 2021 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

If you think economic sentiment is divorced from reality now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Fundamentals-based forecast here using the EAD!

Submit your proposals for this dossier on Argentina's 2025 legislative elections! More info here: rlop.usal.es/index.php/2025… please like & repost!

📢 Call for Papers RLOP Número especial sobre las elecciones argentinas de 2025 (26 de octubre). 📅 Plazo para propuestas: 15 de octubre de 2025 🔗 Más info: rlop.usal.es/index.php/2025… #CallForPapers #RLOP #Elecciones2025 #Argentina

📢 Call for papers RLOP! 📅Submit proposals by 15 Sept 2025 🗓️Submit manuscripts by 31 Jan 2026 See link 👇or contact editors for more details! rlop.usal.es/index.php/2025…

Check out this new article! It looks under the hood of mood to figure out what, precisely, produces parallel movement in spending preferences. Thx Steven M. Van Hauwaert & Christopher Wlezien for inviting me to join!

This paper was first presented European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions in Nicosia sponsored by Tim Hellwig & Professor John Bartle & w/author like Matt Singer Patrick English Xavi Romero Vidal Luca Bernardi Francesco Visconti Armen Hakhverdian Isabelle Guinaudeau Tinette Schnatterer Dr. Zeynep Somer-Topcu & Xless others

🤷Why do Americans' views on social spending shift in parallel across policy areas? ➡️ Steven M. Van Hauwaert @cbwlezien & Ryan E Carlin show spending mood reflects shared policy preferences and responsiveness to overall spending and presidential party cambridge.org/core/journals/… #FirstView

Mi artículo en EL Pais de hoy sobre polarización. El debate | ¿Hay más polarización política en España que en otros países? elpais.com/opinion/2025-0… via EL PAÍS

open.substack.com/pub/pollitik/p…

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The EAD put to good use again by Pollitik! Model is probably too sanguine right now and will depend on how Q2 growth shakes out.

Nice work Elias Davis, Enya Wong & Alioune LO !

The public becomes more supportive of multiple types of social spending when the economy grows, when spending overall declines, & under Republican presidents, explaining why the public tends to simultaneously grow more liberal or conservative across issues cambridge.org/core/journals/…