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Today, we're excited to announce ForecastBench: a new benchmark for evaluating AI and human forecasting capabilities. Our research indicates that AI remains worse at forecasting than expert forecasters. 🧵 Arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2409.19839 Website: forecastbench.org

New working paper with Ezra Karger: We document a "liquidity channel" through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses due to a nominal maturity mismatch on household balance sheets. Link: research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2024-0…

Today we're releasing findings from the largest-ever forecasting survey of nuclear risk experts & superforecasters (151 total), conducted with Open Nuclear Network. The median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 - but identified policies that could cut this risk in half. 🧵