New Greenpeace study worries about a looming environmental disaster in the Baltic Sea due to an increasing number of ageing underinsured oil tankers passing through sensitive marine areas.

Steel production in the EU fell dramatically in 2023 - why? As far as I can deconstruct the European Steel annual report ... Weak domestic demand (not import competition) is the answer. ⚪️ 🇪🇺Supply down 17 MT ⚪️ 🇪🇺Demand down 15 MT ⚪️ Net imports increase is 2 MT

The new Eurobarometer looks into "Europeans’ attitudes towards EU energy policy" A quick scatter-plot of gas price change vs. announced behaviour-change is pretty intuitive.

Next Monday, we at Bruegel will have the honour of hosting Mario Draghi for a conversation about his report on European competitiveness. Here the link to follow the live-stream of the event👇 bruegel.org/event/future-e…

New paper by Conall Heussaff @JohannesEmm Gunnar Luderer Robert Pietzcker S.Reissl R.Rodrigues, R.Way on key risks to achieve the Com's proposed 90% decarb target for 2040. bruegel.org/policy-brief/e…

If(!) I understand this ECMWF figure on an ensemble forecast correctly it is likely that next winter temperatures will again be above the long-term average in Europe. charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso…

Bruegel gas tracker updated by Ugne Keliauskaite : Now with data for full 3Q2024: EU gas imports continue to decline, while the share of RU gas increases bruegel.org/dataset/europe…

Did I miss something? [this is not supposed to be normative]

.Bruegel EU gas import tracker: -weekly EU imports are picking up, although slightly below 2023 weekly levels -weekly imports from RU above seasonal levels; -weekly imports from NO, ALGR, UK and AZ around 2023 weekly levels -EU gas storage is 95% full bruegel.org/dataset/europe…

.@Keliauskaite and myself discuss three options on the future of Ukrainian gas transit: 1) no more transit 2) Azeri-mirrage 3) tight EU framework As 1) is politically very challenging, 2) is too 'dirty', 3) Vol-limits and tariffs might be a compromise. bruegel.org/analysis/end-r…

Russian tankers seem immune to the Houti's in the Bab-el-Mandeb.

.Bruegel EU gas import tracker -total gas imports below seasonal numbers driven by lower LNG imports; -weekly imports from Russia via pipelines above 2022/23 level with flows via Tursktream at the highest level so far; -EU gas storage 95% full, UA 27% bruegel.org/dataset/europe…

Why is Fertility Collapsing, Globally? How can we study this? What should be the test for any new theory? And why does this matter for growth? ggd.world/p/why-is-ferti…

Has Trump ever indicated, whether the 20% import tariffs would also be applied on commodities, incl. oil imports? Given that US gross-imports are ~40% of the consumption (while exports>imports) such tariffs should substantially drive US fuel prices.

German government coalition is breaking down. The latest polls leave one worrying, what comes next. (Table source wahlrecht.de/umfragen/)

.Bruegel EU gas import tracker: - October LNG imports increased compared to recent months, although are below seasonal levels; - weekly reverse gas flows to UA going down; - weekly rate of LNG regasification >= 80% in HR, LT, PL. bruegel.org/dataset/europe…

.Bruegel EU gas import tracker: -weekly imports are up, driven by LNG and Russian gas; -LNG regasification utilisation is 92% in HR, 91% in LT and 83% in PL; -gas withdrawals this autumn started earlier than in the past two years; -EU storage at 93%. bruegel.org/dataset/europe…

For now I am mainly passive here and active on the other side - hoping that network effects still allow penalising actors when they try to extract too much (a very interesting experiment in contestability).