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Since 2015 there have been five major “uncertainty shocks”, driven by rising global political fragmentation and extremism. We discuss how firms can cope by paying for flexibility, contingency planning and paying more attention to politics. hbr.org/2022/09/visual…

Click on the link to read a blog post on how to improve your resilience in uncertain times! Written by: Giulia Piccillo, School of Business and Economics @UM maastrichtuniversity.nl/research/morse…

Call for Papers: Conference on Uncertainty in Empirical Macroeconomics 23-25 October 2023 at Maastricht University organized by MORSE Maastricht Giulia Piccillo and me. Submit here maastrichtuniversity.nl/events/morse-c… by 1 July 2023 #EconTwitter

My blog post with Giulia Piccillo : Making sense of #uncertainty

Happening now: Doyne Farmer (INET Oxford) giving the first keynote speech at the 5th #BehavioraMacroWorkshop at Universität Bamberg ! Deutsche Bundesbank IMK Hans-Böckler-Stiftung INET Complexity Netzwerk Plurale Ökonomik @BMWK_Econ Dezernat Zukunft @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Joep Lustenhouwer Frank Westerhoff Rafael Kothe Maike Korsinnek

... and here our participants! #BehavioralMacroWorkshop BambergSocialScience Jan Schulz-Gebhard @armin_aminian @JuergensKate Muhammed Bulutay Oliver Pfäuti Luca Gerotto Simone Alfarano LQV Deutsche Bundesbank European Central Bank Research European Commission DAAD News

Giulia Piccillo Doyne Farmer INET Oxford Universität Bamberg Deutsche Bundesbank IMK Hans-Böckler-Stiftung INET Complexity Netzwerk Plurale Ökonomik @BMWK_Econ Dezernat Zukunft @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Joep Lustenhouwer Frank Westerhoff Rafael Kothe Maike Korsinnek

Juan Muysken on #Expectations in #StockFlow consistent models at the 5th #BehavioralMacroWorkshop (with Giulia Piccillo and H. Meijers). Heterodox Economics Newsletter @heterodoxnews.bsk Deutsche Bundesbank IMK Hans-Böckler-Stiftung Institut für Sozioökonomie @ifso.bsky.social Netzwerk Plurale Ökonomik

Dean Marielle Heijltjes opening the 2023 MORSE annual academic conference. Looking forward to discussing an economics for resilience, sustainability and responsibility with over 90 delegates in Maastricht over the next three days! #MORSEconference

Giulia Piccillo presenting on macro uncertainty in the MORSE annual academic conference. #MORSEconference

Starting the second day of the #MORSEconference at ⁦School of Business and Economics @UM⁩ ⁦Maastricht University⁩ with an enlightened panel of alumni in sustainability and resilience in business.

🤼🤖Excited to announce our revised paper “Fake News Detection via Wisdom of Synthetic & Representative Crowds” - arxiv.org/pdf/2408.03154 - where we (François t'Serstevens Giulia Piccillo) make fake news detection fairer, keep humans in the loop, and enhance its democratic legitimacy 1/8

To address the democratic legitimacy gap in fake news detection, we propose combining the “wisdom of the crowds” with MrP to generate assessments of digital content that represent the views of the entire population, not just a self-selected few 2/8

We aggregate the preferences of the crowd in various ways, and show the ONLY negatively correlated veracity metrics we generate are those which rely on partisans: Democrats and Republicans have opposite conceptions of what ``fake news’’ is 3/8

Using these metrics we then study ``who shares fake news ?’’ from a sample of pandemic-related Tweets between May and December 2022. The biggest effects we find are, again, related to partisanship ... 4/8

Democrats appear to share less fake news on average, when we use their own definition of fake news, a ``balanced’’ jury’s definition (with an equal amount of democrats and republicans), and a representative jury’s sense ... 5/8

However, we find this effect flips when Republican veracity metrics are used, with Republicans being less likely to share fake news according to their own understanding of it ... 6/8

Finally, we project these sharing estimates onto the US population to get the state-level % of the ``at-risk’’ people. We find small but statistically meaningful area-level heterogeneity; some evidence that rural / white / conservative states have higher % at-risk population 7/8

Our `balanced’ + `representative’ metrics provide democratically legitimate alternatives to existing fake news detection. We hope our findings on who is at risk of sharing fake news will gain acceptance with partisans, as their own opinions are responsible for these assessments.