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Reading the Trump tea leaves, today’s NSC firings suggest: - The MAGA / Koch foreign policy alliance is in ascendency. - China hawks are in decline.

"all day long I call people and beg them to give us their GPUs, we are so incredibly constrained our growth is going like this; deepseek launched and it didn't seem to impact" - Sam Altman

Happy Friday! I was lucky to have a great convo w/ @Greg_Allen on the AI Policy Podcast, talking through the history + latest updates in 🇨🇳 AI policy. I’m heading out on leave soon so wanted to pin a few of these ideas here. Quick takes + timestamps in🧵 below. (1/x)

Today Anthropic submitted key recommendations on the "Diffusion Rule" - export controls on advanced AI chips. We believe maintaining America's compute advantage is essential for national security as powerful AI systems develop. anthropic.com/news/securing-…

NEW: Huawei is building a 7nm fab in Shenzhen for its smartphone and Ascend chips, its first effort to manufacture its own high-end chips. The Guanlan site is part of a sprawling network of new chip manufacturing sites all working on various elements of Huawei's push to become

When the PRC wants to dominate an industry, they foster oversupply and let the market pick the most competitive companies. / Via CSIS Gregory C. Allen

Still yet to talk to any engineers here who say Huawei Ascend working for AI training. It’s ok for inference on small models. DeepSeek doing all of their R2 training on Nvidia, can still get hands on enough H100s to scale up their cluster.