Probability. Easy isn't it. You knock up a few equations and voilà, an exact number. Except there's a problem. A big problem. One with which we are all very familiar. Watch David Spiegelhalter's Oxford Mathematics Public Lecture, Wed 11 Dec, 5pm & any time after: youtu.be/Cybnip2Kyw0

Charlie Chaplin 1920s

Vincent van Gogh – Wheat Fields under a Cloud-Filled Sky, 1888.

Views of Naples by Oswald Achenbach (1827–1905)

Edward Hopper

The most unspoken silent tragedy that occurred in our society over the past 50 years is that we sent all of our brightest minds to work in finance to raise the return on internally invested capital to 16.55% from 16.35%. Rather than having them work on increasing crop yields,

Shower of thoughts: Instead of keeping your Twitter/𝕏 payout, direct it towards a "PayoutChallenge" of your choosing - anything you want more of in the world! Here is mine for this round, combining my last 3 payouts of $5478.51: It is imperative that humanity not fall while AI

Video out now! Electrochemical cell development for flow cells in MiEl Take a look at how a team of 5 doctoral candidates is working on the development and simulation of integrated electrochemical cells using a combination of sensor and printed circuit board (PCB) technologies.

Part of my Ron Paul Institute lecture Daniel McAdams One of the 7 points was Immigration.

Just wrapped our 16th summer school on #UncertaintyQuantification! 27 researchers explored Monte Carlo methods & model robustness in chem eng, energy, & data science. What’s your take on shaking model foundations? Read more: tinyurl.com/jyv7bcxk #MonteCarlo

There more I think about this, the more disturbing it becomes youtube.com/watch?v=ZO5u3V…

Friends, the 3rd Edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is up: adds 3 chapters and an appendix on Max Entropy distributions (includes Tsallis Entropy). One chapter discusses the forecasting masquerades of Philip E. Tetlock & others. arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488

My most important paper ever: How uncertainty (errors on errors) fattens the tails. Connects to all epistemological traditions. w/Pasquale Cirillo Pages 1-4

Everywhere you look, people are talking about “biological age.” They test telomeres, methylation patterns, mitochondrial markers — and promise to tell you how “old” your body really is. This drives me nuts.. LOL. The framing is wrong. The control group isn’t the average