Indeed. China has zero'ed out US grain imports after the tariffs. As it did in 2018. The imports are discretionary (China is more or less self sufficient) and all go through a state grain trading company.

KU Law's Distinguished Professor @rajb delivered a sharp diagnosis of America's trade strategy: unilateral measures that stretch statutory authority and dismantle decades of diplomacy. His lecture asked three questions about the rupture of international trade law. 🧵

.Kimberly Clausing & Maurice Obstfeld examine tariffs fiscal shifts on revenue, distribution, efficiency, & tax administration. Even revenue-maximizing tariffs would be less than 25% of income tax revenue, & efficiency losses nearly as large as revenue raised.piie.com/publications/w…

Trump is pursuing a protectionist economic policy with a massive carve out for AI, where admin policy is quite globalist so what you’ve got is a proudly “anti-globalization” agenda nestled inside a de facto pro-globalization AI agenda that’s actually driving the economy

This week in the The Trade War Lab Substack, we write about my KU School of Law colleague (and TWL Advisory Committee member) Dr. Raj Bhala's University Distinguished Professor lecture on America’s retreat from the global trade laws it once championed. tradewarlab.com/p/america-firs…

Join us on 10/9 at 5pm PDT! Kyle Chan, a postdoc Princeton University, also an adjunct researcher RAND will examine China’s approaches to technology, highlighting its adaptation to shifting trade dynamics and technological competition. RSVP: ow.ly/hwxF50X41XZ

For decades, the U.S. business community was the loudest voice for engagement with China. That it is now leading the call for a tougher line isn’t just a shift in lobbying strategy—it's a verdict on two decades of Beijing's broken promises. wsjchina.cmail19.com/t/d-e-gehljy-d…

New evidence from our Tariff Tracker suggests the 10% lumber and 25% wood furniture tariffs announced on September 29th are already affecting retail prices. Update now includes data through October 3rd: pricinglab.org/tariff-tracker

Companies are hiring many more internal policy specialists than lobbyists; it is a much larger investment in politics and internal expertise andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf

In addition to rare earths, China has now announced new export controls on superhard materials, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anodes. Why now? This timing is no coincidence — it comes just ahead of the expected Trump–Xi meeting later this month.

"Retail Prices Were Heading in the Right Direction—Then Tariffs Hit" library.hbs.edu/working-knowle… Great dataviz:

Quite the day for Chinese export controls... Big things are happening.

It's not a coincidence that China's expanded rare earths export controls mirror aspects of US export controls. 1. Unclear specification of "dual use" 2. Focus on semiconductor manufacturing with specific technical thresholds 3. Coverage of subsidiaries with more than 50% stake

The last time the US imposed sweeping global tariffs, manufacturing supply chains adapted to soften the blow. The current tariff shock is stronger than in 2018, yet uncertainty is also much higher. So what will current tariffs do to supply chains? rhg.com/research/chain…

China’s science & technology ecosystem made searchable! China Data Lab and UC Institute on Global Conflict & Cooperation launch the China Policy Document Navigator, a first-of-its-kind database giving researchers curated access to hard-to-find Chinese policy documents. Learn how to use it here: ow.ly/90VK50X8G5W

New research reveals a counterintuitive finding: despite China's expanding global footprint, the People's Daily has dramatically reduced foreign news coverage. The driver isn't international relations, it's domestic power consolidation.

China published its September trade data. The trend of Chinese exporters diverting trade away from the US and toward other markets continued.

Goldman on who's been paying US tariffs so far: American companies & consumers: 88% Foreign exporters: 9%

“China wants to build a robust export control regime to preserve and leverage its unique technological and industrial capabilities…and create what it calls a ‘unified export control system’ 统一的出口管制制度.” My latest High Capacity piece: high-capacity.com/p/chinas-emerg…

Excellent paper, showing how, even when foreign producers eat some US tariff costs (here, 25%), American consumers end up paying MORE than the full tariff amount bc of local supply chain markups (which are "a common feature of all goods transactions in the United States"):