The US shale boom, which saved the world economy after the Crash, always pitted QE and technology against the rocks to buy more time against the future reckoning. Now, the turn of the oil rollercoaster is towards peace with Russia.

BP’s cumulative woes tell a bigger story: the company of which majority-state ownership was once reason of state for the British government is vulnerable to foreign takeover, and has retreated in the post-2021 financial environment from low-carbon plans. ft.com/content/dd448d…

What can history teach us about what's next for the world?🤔 Our lead partner Evelyn Partners asked Tom Holland (The Rest Is History) & political economist Helen Thompson POLIS. Join us Chalke History Festival to explore the past, understand the present & shape the future. chalkefestival.com

Trump giving up on the air war with the Houthis speaks to a central feature of the disorder: the US still has deep interests in the Middle East but lacking the domestic political basis or fiscal capacity to fight load-bearing wars there, it needs Russian help to contain Iran.

Of all the states Washington is pressurising to stop hedging with China, the UK is one of the easier because its big bet on economic engagement with China - the City as the offshore renminbi centre - failed a decade ago. ft.com/content/52f7be…

Obama and early Biden thought the shale boom was the path for the US to detach from Saudi Arabia. But now with the shale oil peak likely to arrive in 2027 requiring higher US imports, US shale gas exports become a means to establish energy interdependency. reuters.com/business/energ…

Trump is a source of disruptive chaos and perhaps a means of getting into focus just how deep the systemic crisis the United States faces has become.

Does Trump have the nerve to fight the Fed? Read Helen Thompson POLIS on America’s Caesar 👇 buff.ly/wdTEcGm

It was only in the untethered QE world that a big expansion of debt could have financed pandemic lockdowns. Now, with bond yields rising yet 2021-23 energy inflation having made central bank technical fixes harder, underlying post-Crash economic realities are resurfacing.

Back in the autumn I very much enjoyed talking to Lee Vinsel about the geopolitical world and how I started to engage with it. My conversation with Lee is now out here: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/hel…

It was a pleasure to talk again to Hugh Linehan about all matters geopolitical and why we in Europe need to adjust our minds about the United States and its history.

📣 We open to the public from 4:15pm today! 🎤 Highlights include: TWO talks from Tracy Borman OBE & John Gray & Helen Thompson POLIS discussing Trump & the End of Liberal Democracy: What Next? Eve tickets £29 – all talks included. Tickets online or pay on the gate: chalkefestival.com/tickets/

How China’s power as a rare earth exporter – made from Chinese patience allied to US offshoring – and China’s needs as a rare earth importer – made from Made in China 2025 – have changed the world.

'Does China have the power to induce a genuine global crisis over these minerals?' 'I think it does actually.' Cambridge Political Economy Professor Helen Thompson POLIS speaks to @FreddieSayers about the high-stakes geopolitics of 'rare earths'. Could they trigger a future war?

It was a pleasure to talk to Ian Leslie for The Ruffian on Britain's economic and political trials. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/new…

The holiday I read Moby Dick.

Trying to get Europe to buy more US-produced energy has been one of the consistent Trump threads, as if MAGA means recreating an early 20th century world of European dependency that in the end proved unacceptable even to the US itself. ft.com/content/b70da8…

It was a real pleasure to talk to Le Grand Continent about my love for the Bay of Naples.