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Nominal retail sales growth is not too bad, for the RBA is seems clear demand, at least in nominal terms, is holding up. There's no reason for an emergency or outsized interest rate cut in later in the month

Q1 PPI also out. A solid rise in the quarter of 0.9%qoq, will at the margin be looked at by the RBA with the hope that it too will come down in line with the CPI

Retail volumes for Q1 were weak and will add nothing to real GDP growth in the quarter after a solid Q4 (that was revised lower from 1% to 0.8%qoq). Implicit price deflation in line with inflation but food the outlier running at 4.5%yoy, on average items not getting any cheaper

Safe haven? H/t BCA Research chart

Australia’s innovation in the private and public sectors is so often centred around property and ever more household debt. And then we wonder why we have poor productivity outcomes.

Dwelling approvals lower in March, continues to be very volatile

Looking through the volatility approvals turning a bit in trend terms led by detached housing. Will be interesting to see the cycle responding to rates with costs so high

Household spending indicator posts a negative in the month, first since last September as QLD weather impacts and weakness in NSW.

If you take the yoy% growth of public demand and private demand and then take the ten year moving average of both it tells you a lot about the Australian economy...

Again interesting for superannuation funds if you want to invest in equities then you need have little tracking error against the benchmark to meet APRA's performance test, a benchmark around 70% US weighted. Investment risk and performance test risks don't align.

Part of this very interesting discussion was around real exchange rates and how Australia's competitiveness is eroded despite the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. Below is a chart of this using ULCs rather than prices. It all gets back to productivity in the end...

It’s an interesting point as many Australian long-term investors think through issues around deploying capital away from the US. The question being will what’s happening diminish US entrepreneurialism over the long term, difficult to know, but equally difficult to bet against

Fed leaves rates unchanged “The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

Adding Australia to the chart, a narrative hear that we are victims of our own success as the terms of trade has replaced productivity in driving living standards, allowing policy-makers off the hook. Prominent economists are calling for the re-elected government to use its

Triguboff: “…we need more houses and more and more people…” Reminds me of a quote (aptly) in the Big Short “I can't hate him. He is so transparent in his self interest that I kind of respect him.” theaustralian.com.au/business/prope…

Absolutely, we can to speak to the kids!