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A lot of folks still think that Bitcoin is "too volatile" But over the last six months, Bitcoin has the highest Sharpe ratio of all cyclical asset classes (stocks, credit, commodities, RE, etc.) Sharpe = risk-adjusted return And that was through a 20% drawdown in $SPY We

Is investing in stocks as the indexes make all-time highs a good idea? How do forward returns compare to "buying the dip" or a global average? That's what we're discussing in the Daily Edge today... Hint: fwd returns are a little lower than avg, but so is your risk of loss

For those hoping for a 15% decline in home prices... the only two precedents in the last 100 years are 1) Great Recession 2) Great Depression

What are the odds the market peaks (at least locally) between the 17th and the 20th? a) >50% b) <50%

Nevertheless, until there is *real labor market weakness* in goods-producing industries, we probably CANNOT have a recession As long as these industries (manufacturing, construction, etc) continue to add jobs, the music keeps playing

Analytical edge is usually NOT about predicting the future It's about having a differentiated view of the probabilities relative to what's priced in

Interesting to think that, since Q1 of 2021 (>4 years ago), nominal GDP is +32% S&P 500 is +60% Russell 2000 is flat

The factor that no one understands MOMENTUM Usually, when someone asks about what drives a factor/sector risk, the answer is some variant of "economic conditions" (growth, inflation, rates, etc.) However, the performance of momentum is NOT highly sensitive to economic

❓❓Who's paying for tariffs if inflation is slowing?❓❓ Probably corporations - at least for now! Market is implying 50 bps of EBITDA mgn contraction in the S&P 500 over the last three months $SPY

Is economic growth once again hooking higher? I think we should be open to that possibility... Weekly Economic Index (a composite of railcar traffic, steel production, electricity output, & more) is back above 2.5% and jobless claims are <230,000 👀👀

There's still an open debate about how restrictive monetary policy is What's the right answer? Right now, the EFFR is 100 bps higher than nominal growth... That means policy is VERY tight relative to economic conditions... Worth thinking about in the face of cool inflation

The US goods economy is still operating well, well-below potential For instance, the Cass Shipments Index remains 17% below its 2021 cycle-peak We've really gone nowhere in nearly a decade

Maybe we're not entering a recession? Regional manufacturing data suggests hiring intentions are at a multi-year high!

Industrials, Gold, and Bitcoin: How Mike Singleton (Mike Singleton, CFA) Is Positioning for the Second Half of 2025 financialsense.com/podcast/21343/…

We're getting asked frequently: is market sentiment currently too frothy? And the answer is NO Three points from today's Daily Edge 1) Sentiment tracks price, always 2) Sentiment is right where it should be given recent px 3) Sentiment really isn't a *great* indicator of fwd