Phenomenal new article on the nationalization of state legislative elections!

It was a long journey, but the first chapter of my dissertation (that began in a writing class at Texas A&M, Fall 2020) has finally been published! Summary: top-two primaries produce large candidate fields that can overwhelm voters, leading to rolloff. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15…

Occidental’s .Isaac Hale presenting on Does Quality Count? Considering Candidates in #Senate Elections 1980-2022 at #APSA2024 panel on Rethinking the Roles of Individual Candidates & Their Attributes”— .Daniel Moskowitz as Discussant. #politicalscience #APSA .Carlos Algara .APSA

I was Derek's discussant at APSA for his JMP on "amateurs." His work is thoughtful, provocative, and creative.

when he first ran in 2016, voters weren't too sure how to place Trump on the ideological scale, but his presidency offered a great deal of clarity. new Good Authority piece by me and Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/trump-con…

Our statewide poll (out today!) was covered in Politico California Playbook again! Thanks POLITICO for spotlighting our work ☺️ Check it out for interesting findings on key races, ballot props, and policy attitudes! 🗳️

Poli sci election forecasting models offer mixed predictions & mostly close races, with some new models & missing old models: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

This is a really excellent piece in Bloomberg from Mary Ellen Klas & Carolyn Silverman Draws on Devin Caughey & Chris Warshaw's book to show that red state policy is much less congruent with state public opinion than blue state policy bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…

🇯🇵#Japan, general election results: Seats called by the NHK: LDP: 186 seats CDP: 143 Ishin: 35 DPP: 26 Komeito: 22 Reiwa: 8 JCP: 8 Sanseitō: 2 SDP: 1 CPJ: 1 Others/Independents: 11 Opposition: 235✅ LDP-Komeito: 208 With 22 seats left to declare, the opposition already have a

open.spotify.com/episode/3OAoFx…

Thanks to KCAL News for having me on today to talk election 2024!

This year's presidential election had the lowest variation in state swings (in two-party margin) of any presidential election in at least 44 years

Ok here’s the State Democracy Index 2.0 dataset. Enjoy! democracypolicylab.berkeley.edu/state-democrac…

We've invested years into building the best, publicly-available database of modeled candidate quality. Today, we're unveiling our 2024 Wins Above Replacement models. Here's an initial breakdown on some high-level findings. split-ticket.org/2025/01/15/our…

Great PIPE Collaborative presentation today on Senate elections and political amateurs since 1980 by Isaac Hale. Coauthor Carlos Algara was also on attendance! And great comments by Christian Grose.

This paper deserves more attention. Uses Keyssar and other data to compile the most comprehensive historical state disenfranchisement law dataset I've seen. Uses it to show which policies reduced turnout most (it was poll taxes) gated: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Nice post about Isaac Hale's recent PIPE Collaborative Workshop at USC Price School. priceschool.usc.edu/news/senate-co…

if you've been waiting for the CES common content data to be released, your wait is nearly over. data should be posted early next week! stay tuned!

NEW! Do interest groups shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale, & Simmons find pro-reform messages increase support for voting rights legislation, but only for Democrats Carlos Algara CGU Isaac Hale Occidental College UW-Eau Claire tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

Very excited to share a new project I've been working on. MCs have a statistically detectable preference for enforcing the separation of powers, but it is rarely big enough to affect their roll call vote choices. Very early project - open to all feedback!