When nominal & real interest rates were ≤ 0, Lawrence H. Summers & Olivier Blanchard had us convinced the natural interest rate would stay low indefinitely, on average. Many still think rates, currently 5 % (st nominal), will revert to ≈ 0. But what if that’s wrong? jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/08/14/the…

Monetary economists before 1998: zero interest rates are only a theoretical curiosum from Keynes. 1998-2008: zero rates apply only to Japan. 2008-2022: the world is stuck with the ZLB as a constraint from now on. 2023: It may be time for another re-think. theguardian.com/business/2023/…

“My best guess is that Trump will be convicted on one or more counts,” writes Harvard Kennedy School’s Jeff Frankel, “but will not serve time.” Read his full prediction in a new PS Big Question. bit.ly/3P25zN9

“My best guess is that Trump will be convicted on one or more counts,” writes Harvard Kennedy School’s Jeff Frankel, “but will not serve time.” Read his full prediction in a new PS Big Question. bit.ly/47Cj2nf

Rarely do countries get the chance to be led by someone as smart, thoughtful, and well-read as ⁦Tharman Shanmugaratnam⁩ . Congratulations Singapore! asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Singa…

Congratulations to Lisa Cook, Philip Jefferson, and Adriana Kugler on being confirmed as Fed governors, by the Senate! pionline.com/washington/sen… via Pensions & Investments

.Naomi Klein’s impressive new book, Doppleganger, is an occasion to reflect on her “brand.” Her past books seem to me off-target: No Logo re corporate brands; Shock Doctrine re conservatives; This Changes Everything re capitalism causing climate change. prosyn.org/axckBNy

Last week, I gave my take on 4 Naomi Klein books. Her Shock Doctrine said conservatives use crises to enact changes. Eg, Bush & 9/11. I said liberals do this too. Eg, Obama & 2008 GFC. Some readers wrongly thought I was equating the two morally. My blog: jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/09/21/nao…

Evidence in small countries that tradable goods, both exports & imports, are $-priced, has led to the DCP paradigm (e.g. Gita Gopinath, 2015). But it could as easily support the old Salter-Swan Small Open Economy model, which needs reviving. cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… via CEPR

It's been 366 days since this headline.

His important work on trade policy will live on ...

Nov. 2012, the CCP decided market-oriented reforms to sustain China growth. GDP was to surpass the US by 2021. Instead, Chinese GDP slowed, & may not catch US until 2035. One reason: the reforms were not implemented. Xi put political control over growth. jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/10/23/chi…

US 12-mo CPI inflation = 3.2 %. Does the Federal Reserve deserve credit for disinflation, notwithstanding that the usual channel via dampened GDP & jobs is not visible? Yes -- with a big assist from the resolution of pandemic supply disruptions. Project Syndicate prosyn.org/wc5T7I1

Perhaps #inflation's rise & fall were due to the start & end of supply chain disruptions. If so, the Federal Reserve did it about right.

In celebration of #UDHR75, our new publication "Making a Movement: The History and Future of Human Rights," contains essays from 90 Harvard University faculty and affiliates on the intersection of human rights and racial justice, economics, climate change, and more: bit.ly/75udhr

Experts have long favored a reform to help reduce US airport congestion, flying times, delays, cancellations, & near-misses: move Air Traffic Control outside the #FAA, funded by user fees, as in other countries. The corporate jet lobby blocks it. Project Syndicate prosyn.org/gY4OQu2

Are you unsure how to think about trade & climate change? Confused by EU's CBAM? In despair over lack of any global enforcement of GHG pledges? Learn the answer in 2 minutes:

The JIE has now published papers from the 45th annual NBER ISoM. sciencedirect.com/journal/journa… , Hélène Rey, Ricardo Reis,Kristin J Forbes,  Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

The Dec issue of JIE publishes papers from the 45th annual NBER ISoM: sciencedirect.com/journal/journa… Yuriy Gorodnichenko,Alberto Cavallo,Galina Hale,Elias Papaioannou, Hélène Rey,Ricardo Reis,Kristin J Forbes,Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

It is rarely possible to predict recession before it has begun to show up in empl or production statistics. But unbelievably chaotic Trump policies re tariffs, federal personnel & so on already show up in leadng indicators: stock market, confidence... m.economictimes.com/news/internati…