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Former Gov. Roy Cooper’s camp tells me no decision expected on the US Senate race for at least a couple more weeks #ncpol

#ElectionTwitter Here's a map of the swing by county in Ohio from 1920 to 1924. While Dems gained with Germans in NW Ohio, they lost a lot of support in SW Ohio due to the absence of regional native James Cox on the ticket and also did poorly with working-class voters in NE Ohio.

NEW Crystal Ball -- J. Miles Coleman and I on the Bacon and Tillis retirements, including why we're moving NE-2 to Leans D and keeping NC-SEN as a Toss-up centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ba…

CRYSTAL BALL: Theme of the day is Bacon and Carolina BBQ. Kyle Kondik and I formalize the rating change in NE-2 from Toss-up to Leans Dem + NC’s Senate race stays a Toss-up. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ba…

Kyle Kondik J. Miles Coleman You’re absolutely right to keep NC Senate as a tossup for now because of counties like these. These two alone netted Trump ~90K votes (around half his statewide MOV). I’m releasing the map for another big GOP county shortly. Dems will need to overcome all of them.

J. Miles Coleman Kyle Kondik Weird, probably irrelevant fact: since 1990, Democrats only win Senate elections in NC in years ending in 8 when they're doing unusually well in Indiana:

Incumbency Blue(s)? Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman for Larry Sabato Center for Politics at UVA Retirements of Don Bacon (NE-2) and Thom Tillis (NC) create possibilities. Could Lara Trump's carpetbag travel? Great time to be a political scientist. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ba…

New episode live w/Morris Katz (Morris Katz ), lead media strategist Zohran Kwame Mamdani for NYC on his path to politics, joining Fight Agency, & deep dive into the content, strategy, & takeaways from the most innovative political upset in years. Listen: propolitics.buzzsprout.com/1704139/episod…

Behold - the 2020 & 2024 United States Presidential Election Results, Swings, + Trends in Erie County, Pennsylvania. Erie had fallen in last year's GOP wave; rurals + some suburbs moved more GOP, reflecting a nationwide trend. However, trends do look optimistic for Dems here. 🧵

In honor of SCOTUS punting on the VRA case involving seats in AL & LA (and as a preview of the release of my ‘92 House map on Saturday), I wanted to show what LA’s map looked like when the VRA was put into full effect. We can see Cleo Fields’ 4th CD makes his current…1/2

#GoodMorning #ElectionTwitter 1987 #LAGov Debate: Buddy Roemer vs. Edwin Edwards vs. Billy Tauzin vs. Bob Livingston vs. Jim Brown ladigitalmedia.org/video_v2/asset…

CRYSTAL BALL: I looked back since 2004 at how each state has moved around in the electoral college. This article is about when each state was most Democratic relative to the national vote. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/20…

In time for the 4th, one of those wonderful "when did" pieces that the wonky among us love to read. J. Miles Coleman for Larry Sabato Center for Politics at UVA When Democrats did best (hint, skinny guy with funny name did OK) Watch the D erosion in the Midwest centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/20…

The 1968 Canadian Federal Election, a contest between Newly Minted Liberal Party Prima Minister Pierre Eliot Trudeau, and Progressive Conservative Party Leader Robert Stanfield turned in a landslide for Trudeau,

I’m so terminally NCPol brained that I know this was false just by the picture

The 2025 NJ Gubernatorial Democratic Primary, a contest that saw NJ-11 Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill best a divided field by 13% likewise saw her carry a majority of 24/40 State Legislative Districts, 8/12 Congressional Districts, and 15/21 Counties.

While #IL09 is going to be home to one of America's most hotly-contested Democratic primaries in 2026, the general election will probably be a snoozer. This district backed Harris by 37 points last year, so the real election will be the 10+ candidate Democratic primary.

A third party hasn't been able to win 5+ seats in Congress since the Progressive Party in 1912 and 1914, the Teddy Roosevelt breakaway group that was extinct by 1918 x.com/Jason/status/1…

Behold! The 1992 House map! I put a lot into this, so a like, repost & follow (if you don’t already) would be appreciated 🥹. This was a particularly important cycle because it was the first where the VRA was fully enforced, so you had some crazy looking districts and lawsuits

The 1995 San Francisco Mayoral Election, a contest primarily between Incumbent Mayor Francis Jordan and Frm. California State Assembly speaker Willie Brown resulted in Brown ousting the fiscally conservative mayor in favor of the Liberal Brown;