New at PNASNews with David Broockman, christian caballero & Matty Easton: "Political practitioners poorly predict which messages persuade the public." As we head into the last week of the campaign, a good reminder that political practitioners have poor intuitions as to what persuades

Many people are extremely upset about last night's results, and others are ecstatic. These reactions make sense, but as a reminder that things don't always work out as expected, here's my favorite Taoist story.

You should, in fact, defer to technocrats when they have real expertise and shared interest over a limited domain. The very issue in the politics of expertise right now is whether either condition is true. Democracy is not just when the demos gives control to the technocrats.

Giving first-year PhD students advice as a second-year

I’m reading a lot of snarky elitism out today where people are in effect writing “oh well this is what Americans voted for. sucks to suck” “reap what you sow” or “let them suffer and they’ll learn” etc. and I do not think this is correctly grounded in voter psychology. People

Twitter dynamics are so fascinating. Smaller accounts tag big accounts, often with ingratiating comments meant to curry favor, and get bits of attention in response. People “invest” in small accounts that will make good allies in the future. etc First time I’m understanding what

Trump’s Panama Canal obsession is such a bizarre boomer throwback. To anyone under 60 it probably feels like the most random thing ever, but at one time this was like a BIG right wing issue.

In politics, there's the concept of thermostatic opinion. Elect Democrats, country moves right. Elect Republicans, country moves left. Point is, history isn't linear. It's a story of triumph, overreach, reaction, and cyclicality. I wonder if the same is true for information

doing surveys is so THRILLING. i get to watch new data pour in and TEST HYPOTHESES. i get to discover new clues about reality, some of which are the first clues any human has laid eyes on. i feel like im breaking into an ancient egyptian tomb for the first time. it's ecstatic

Apropos of nothing, one man's "whataboutism" is another man's "just making sure we're not playing Calvinball."

“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?” by John Konicki Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf/…

Attitudinal sorting, based on symbolic ideology, policy attitudes, & group sentiments has risen substantially & explains most of the rise of affective polarization. Demographic sorting is stable & explains little osf.io/preprints/osf/…

Great new paper from our PhD student John Konicki that challenges our understanding of what has given rise to affective polarization in America.

I frequently tell people that they need to prepare for AI to disrupt their work, only to hear that they're not worried, AI isn't there and probably never will be, it hallucinates, etc. Almost always, I can think of a dozen ways that current AI capabilities could disrupt their

Someone needs to reconcile the narratives (and they may be reconcilable!) about the impossibility of making yourself stand out in the elite-college applicant pool and the narratives about how Ivy League kids can't read novels and need remedial algebra. x.com/Tyler_A_Harper…

Also it’s probably rare for someone to be great at both TV and policy, so you’re not selecting for those with the most policy knowledge

Bottom line: I'm freaked out. I don't think people understand that they're basically exiting university as glorified AI assistants, and in many cases, they're doing so without the critical thinking skills that engaging with their education would provide them.

"So often people have blamed the most conservative Republicans and most progressive Democrats for creating the conditions where it is hard to govern. But... it’s the moderates and the party establishments who haven’t figured out how to work in this new world." 💯