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If you are in the Bay Area in late April / Early May and want to compare notes on drug R&D and longevity biotech, DM me.

I like the Freeman Dyson version: "In the days when I was a physicist, I could lie in the bath and think things out from first principles. In biology, I have to keep getting out of the bath to look up the facts."

+ 51 new speakers added to Vitalist Bay in Berkeley, CA. The world's biggest longevity event! Join us, starting with Unlimited Health Conference, from next Saturday April 5th, to April 7th. At Vitalist Bay, you'll have the healthiest time of your life!

I'm speaking at Vitalist Bay longevity event. My talks don't always make you live longer. But it sure seems longer.

Longevity is having a moment.... I've come late to the classic Olshanksy analyses of mortality rates at different ages: We've already done a great job beating the diseases that cause early death, so we now mostly die from diseases whose risks all increase massively with age. That

Thanks for input Jack - I think this is where the view of metabolic dysfunction/chronic inflammation comes in, with view that Peter Attia’s “4 horsemen” are exacerbated by this, and potentially mitigated by improvements in diet (& decr IR) and exercise… Daniel J Drucker

AI can't "solve" all diseases for the simple reason that all diseases were solved by computational chemistry in 1985, by high throughput screening in 1995, by genomics in 2000, by RNAi in 2004, by stem cells and nanotechnology in 2005, before being solved by CRISPR in 2015.

Value in biopharma R&D is sensitive to decision quality. So it should be a surprise that current DCF models confuse bad decisions to keep bad candidates with good decisions to keep good ones. John Mellnik and I have a pre-print which puts decision quality into valuation.

Horse racing or biotech investing? In an "accumulator" you bet on several races, get paid if all your horses win, with the payout calculated by multiplying the odds in each race. This makes sense because the races are statistically independent. Biopharma valuation uses

Today I am experiencing "LinkedIntäuschung"; the feeling of disappointment when someone connects with you on a social network, only to immediately pitch an unwanted service or software product.

One of the most common (and most attractive for human decision makers) mistakes in drug discovery is to assume correlation equals causation. It's the intellectual equivalent of recommending people get a hair transplant to live longer, because younger people tend to have more

Jack Scannell and "happy hour" rarely occur in the same sentence, so thanks so much to Martin Borch Jensen and Gordian Biotechnology for a fun evening of biotech and R&D productivity talk.

I'll be in the Bay Area from the 1st to the 8th of July, and New York from the 9th to the 12th. DM me if want to meet about my biotech venture (Etheros; enzyme mimetics for inflammation / neurodegeneration) or the R&D productivity work.

I visited Axiom recently. Don't know their tech in great detail, but I really like this kind of approach. Lots of AI hype in drug R&D is misplaced because the data are absent and/or crap. Axiom, on the other hand, is serious about manufacturing the data on which the wheels of AI

Hi zack chiang check this out for some thoughts on the causes of Eroom's Law (the inverse of Moore's Law which held for biopharma R&D productivity from 1950 to 2010) Dwarkesh Patel george church. Diagnosing the decline in pharmaceutical R&D efficiency. Nat Rev Drug Discov 11, 191–200

Well worth a read….