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Mutinies seek policy change short of regime change (e.g., better pay, change in mil. leadership, etc). Wagner turning back seems to signal this was a mutiny from the beginning. Along with Prigo broadcasting intentions, which coup plotters rarely do!

As more postmortem analyses on the mutiny come out, it would be helpful to keep in mind a few things that need to be accounted for: 1/9

If true, this is far less about rectifying genuine insecurity in Niger and more about regime security for the putschists

Africa has experienced democracy, dictatorship, and everything in between. And in all of Africa's political experiences it is hard to find something that has failed so consistently to deliver on promises as the military coup. buff.ly/3NLpX4s

🚨During yesterday's protest against #France in #Niamey, capital of #Niger, several #Wagner and #Russia flags were spotted. One flag of #China and one of #NorthKorea was also seen. Worrying...

Norms at Home, Norms Abroad: Security Force Assistance and Civil-Military Relations | Jaclyn Johnson-Avalos Christopher Faulkner Salah Ben Hammou Jonathan Powell mwi.westpoint.edu/norms-at-home-…

Global silence.

Thread: #Yemen is making the headlines again for all the wrong reasons. In this thread, I am going to list a few articles that I highly recommend for anyone who wants to understand who are the Houthis & why they are escalating in the Red Sea

NEW COMMENTARY | Crisis Group’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024 1️⃣ Gaza 2️⃣ Wider Middle East War 3️⃣ Sudan 4️⃣ Ukraine 5️⃣ Myanmar 6️⃣ Ethiopia 7️⃣ The Sahel 8️⃣ Haiti 9️⃣ Armenia-Azerbaijan 🔟 U.S.-China In collaboration w/ Foreign Policy 📌 Read more: crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…

Informative animation by Steven Bernard using ACLED data to visualize the frequency, magnitude & spatial distribution of violent attacks across the Sahel for Aanu Adeoye's latest Big Read for the Financial Times on the ongoing jihadist insurgency: ft.com/content/f9c0ca…

🧵 1/4 Protest of the military police (gendarmerie) in the Central African Republic #RCA. According to our information, Central African gendarmes in Bossangoa staged a protest to complain about their cooperation with #Wagner mercenaries because of their violent methods.

Africa Faces the Unintended Consequences of Relying on Russian PMCs fpri.org/article/2024/0… via Foreign Policy Research Institute With Christopher Faulkner and Zach Streicher!

Interesting reporting from Stop Wagner Jaclyn Johnson-Avalos, Zach Streicher, and I talk a bit about the increasing likelihood of such altercations in our recent piece with Foreign Policy Research Institute: fpri.org/article/2024/0…

Protesters how now entered the Kenyan parliament, part of which is on fire. I am hearing that 10 or more people have been shot dead. This should be front page news *everywhere* today. Retweet and share #kenya #KENYAPeoplePower

When the international order breaks down, it has disproportionately negative consequences for sub-Saharan Africa. My latest in Foreign Affairs on the U.S. response — successes, setbacks, and what more can be done. foreignaffairs.com/africa/africa-…

Political violence has no place in America….or anywhere for that matter. Whatever your politics we should all agree on this point

"The New York Times has written 54 articles about Congo in the past 12 months, including ones on the environment and the country’s recent election. It has, by contrast, run 2,969 articles on Ukraine." A must read via Jason Stearns foreignaffairs.com/democratic-rep… via Foreign Affairs

1/ Russian conscripts are now fighting, dying and being captured in large numbers in Ukraine's Kursk offensive. As this is the first time that conscripts have been a significant factor in the war, let's look at who the conscripts are and why so many have surrendered. ⬇️

Jaclyn Johnson-Avalos, Zach Streicher, and I talked about this type of tension becoming a real possibility via Foreign Policy Research Institute. We thought (and think) it would stem from the armed forces angry at their mercenary counterparts but this highlights an additional angle fpri.org/article/2024/0…

9. Population Density of Africa