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The world doesn’t run to growth when things go wrong. It runs to shadows. Today, two of those shadows — Switzerland and Hong Kong — are screaming. The Swiss franc, too strong again. A currency not rising on strength, but on fear. Prices in Switzerland? Flatlining. Demand,

China’s stimulus is proactive. Europe’s consumers are holding up. Canada’s export engine is roaring. US oil demand is bouncing back. Instead, data tells a different story. 🇨🇳 In China, the PBoC just slashed the RRR by 50 bps and cut its key repo rate—"injecting" CNY 1 trillion

We've been tracking extreme values across key financial indicators—and they’re not backing off as May kicks in. Covered CHF and HKD yesterday. Swap spreads before that. Gold ratios before those. But this one might be the most important yet. It’s about banks. And it’s not easing.

If you’re only looking at stock prices, the economy seems fine. But under the surface? Global financial stress indicators are lighting up — and none of them are backing off. Here’s what’s happening: Swap spreads are near record lows — a major warning sign for liquidity in the

While the Fed stood still this week… The Bank of England just hit the panic button. They cut rates again — despite all the talk about sticky inflation and tariffs. But here’s the kicker: their vote was split three ways. Some wanted to cut even more. Why? Because quietly,

The consumer steps back, quietly. US jobless claims fall—but only as seasonal distortions fade. Beneath the surface, severance dries, labor hoarding frays and productivity is down. Credit growth? Dead, save for a mysterious rise in student loans. Revolving credit stalls.

The sharks are circling. Private credit—shadow banks in all but name—rose after 2008 the boomed since 2022, feeding off the credit-starved, riskier parts of the economy. But now the cracks are forming. Hedge funds have raked in $1.7B shorting direct lenders like Apollo and

Markets are humming, but the music’s off-key. 🇯🇵 Japan’s leading index slipped again—its lowest since November. Consumer sentiment is collapsing, unemployment ticking up, M2 crawling at a 20-year low. The land of QE is quietly suffocating under a weak pulse of demand and

Everyone said risk was back. That the worst was behind. That stimulus would juice credit. This week shredded that narrative. 🇨🇳 China CPI? Down for the third consecutive month. PPI? -2.5%. Deflation isn't done - demand remains frail. 🇯🇵 Japan Eco Watchers: sentiment sank.

Mainstream media cheered the rebound (and the trade deal). Said that sentiment was turning. That the worst was over. But the cracks are still there. 🇺🇸 US CPI increased to 2.3% year-over-year - marking the lowest 12-month "inflation" rate since February 2021 (sluggish demand and

The layoffs are just beginning. Microsoft just slashed jobs again. Not because it’s in trouble—but because it can’t pass rising costs to customers. CPI came in “cool”… but it’s not good news. It’s proof the economy is too weak to handle cost pressures—so firms are cutting

August is coming soon, and you know what that means: disappearing T-bills.. I'm extremely proud to officially welcome Alexandru-Stefan Goghie to the Eurodollar University team. He's already been working behind the scenes for a few months already helping me with researching,

Everyone remembers October 1929. The stock market crashed. The world spiraled into the Great Depression. At least… that’s the story we’ve all been told. But if that crash was the cause, why didn’t the same thing happen after 1987? Or the dot-com bust? Or even 2008?

Everyone’s focused on rate cuts. But beneath the surface, signals are shifting. In China, all eyes were on April’s data drop. Fixed Asset Investment? Slowing. Retail Sales? Below expectations. Real estate? Plummeted 10%. Industrial Output? Decelerating. The message:

Everyone’s freaking out because Moody’s just downgraded U.S. government debt. But what if I told you… That’s not even close to the real crisis? Because here’s what no one’s talking about: The government is already broke — It’s been broke. And yet… the market just keeps

In China, the PBoC cut LPRs - first time since Oct. Stimulus is "happening"… but real demand isn't biting. Banks are swimming in bad real estate loans. Monetary transmission? Still clogged. In Europe, Germany’s PPI came in soft again - "disinflation" entrenched. But construction

Oil builds again – EIA data showed crude stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels this week, despite elevated refinery activity. Gasoline and distillate inventories, meanwhile, continued to drain. Crude curve? Still steepening - the market sees short-term tightness, long-term

Something strange is happening between U.S. banks and shadow banks. In Q1 2025, American banks quietly lent $333.6 billion to offshore investment funds. That’s a third of a trillion. In three months. Why now? Because here's the part no one’s talking about: This isn’t

Sweden just reported a negative GDP print, officially slipping back into recession. It’s not an isolated case. Across the globe, we’re seeing the same signs: Japan, South Korea, China, Australia, all reporting weak or negative growth Germany and France facing rising