The Dollar-down trade is popular at the moment, given the view that the Fed is more dovish than the ECB. Forget the Fed. There's only one driver of USD and that's US core inflation, which - after recent declines - is looking very sticky. Dollar weakness is ending. Jonathan Pingle

Is the G7 price cap working? 1. Too early to say. There's 2 shocks: (i) the price cap; (ii) the EU embargo. Both started Dec. 5. The latter caused Urals oil price (black) to fall relative to Brent (blue), so that the $60 cap on Urals isn't currently binding. With Jonathan Pingle

We've flagged a strong disinflation dynamic in the US since mid-2022, with the weight of items in the US CPI with inflation < 2% up lots (lhs, blue). Same is playing out in the Euro zone (rhs, blue), where it'll be even more forceful due to deep recession. With Jonathan Pingle

US inflation will keep falling. Measures of supply chain disruption - like delivery delays (red) and prices firms chare (black) - best explain the COVID inflation spike. They all point down, so US inflation will keep falling. US disinlation will continue. With Jonathan Pingle

Today's Summary of Economic Projections shows a significant drop in member's inflation risk weightings.

Today's Summary of Economic Projections shows a significant drop in member's inflation risk weightings. Dovish.

Markets may be overreacting to the banking shock and overestimating the odds of a US recession, says @RobinBrooksIIF. Stabilizing credit could drag down GDP growth. But the US economy depends less than others on the path of bank lending, so recession isn’t a sure thing, he says.

The G7 price cap on Russia is in trouble. The share of western-owned oil tankers taking oil out of Russia is falling, giving Putin the power to sell at the price he wants. Share of western tankers out of Baltic ports is down to 40% from 80% a year ago (rhs, blue). Jonathan Pingle

Russia's tax revenues on oil are now almost as low as in the Shale oil shock of 2014/5 or during peak COVID. The West can increase Putin's pain by lowering the G7 cap from $60 to $30. That sends Russia into financial crisis. Hard to fight a war when your economy is imploding...

First indications of profit margins starting to moderate - but historically still high for policy comfort. Note high profits particularly in Europe Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 V good research @RobinBrooksIIF Jonathan Pingle @porszag

Today's March CPI is the most dovish we've seen in a while. Our super core (blue) rose from mid-2022 on and stayed high through Feb. 2023 data. This ended with today's print. Super core is the weakest since H1 2022. The US inflation scare may finally be over. With Jonathan Pingle

“Everybody sees [price] declines around the corner,” General Motors Co. finance chief Paul Jacobson said of American consumers’ willingness to spend big on new cars, which continued in the latest quarter. “That corner just keeps getting further and further out.”

Today's the last day at IIF of Jonathan Pingle, the amazing and wonderful mind behind our oil tanker web crawler, which shed so much light on Greek oil tanker oligarchs. We wish you all the best and thank you! If you love data and want to work with Jonathan Fortun and me, email us...

🛢️🇷🇺Russia's oil exports. @RobinBrooksIIF & Jonathan Pingle of IIF have been doing some superb work on tracking the cargos.

For 2 great years, ⁦Jonathan Pingle⁩ worked with me on everything from the US labor market to tracking global oil tankers out of Russia. Now he’s at ⁦Natixis Research CIB⁩ and giving his wonderful ⁦UBS⁩ dad a run for the money. So proud… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Here is a feel good story about US jobs market (well, forecasting of it!) for you guys: Jonathan Pingle bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Great webinar in a week's time with Natixis Research CIB and Jonathan Pingle, who built the data I use all the time that track oil tankers out of Russia's ports, coding up a web crawler to identify their true owners. He's also one of the best payrolls forecasters on Wall Street...

I started this month’s labor market outlook with an opening line that characterized April’s extraordinary amount of economic policy ‘doublethink.’ “It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.” - George Orwell

It was a pleasure advising Annika Brooks on her recent research post on COVID's impact on US Income Inequality. It's also a great look at the newly released state distribution of disposable personal income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. open.substack.com/pub/annikabroo…