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New in JHPE: Phil Hoffman authors a Review Essay -- "The Historical Origins of Economic Growth and Inequality and the Implications for Policy Today" -- in which he covers recent books by Galor, Acemoglu/Simon, and Koyama/Rubin. nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…

My colleague Jonathan N. Katz is going to be giving a talk next week at Caltech about election science! caltechy.org/services-1/the…

New Science Magazine: Public opinion alone won’t save democracy (w/Rocío Titiunik) science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… Key point: "Efforts to promote democracy among the public, though promising, must be paired with institutions that encourage elites to respect democratic norms & practices"

Non-response bias in polling (& panel recruitment) is a serious issue that has gotten worse & likely accounts for polling misses. It also suggests we are getting a misleading picture of partisans & public opinion. Polling at a Crossroads: cambridge.org/core/books/pol…

Call for papers! The Caltech 2024 Election Integrity Project is organizing a conference on Information and Misinformation in Elections. It'll be January 16-17 on the Caltech campus (so the weather will be great). If you are doing research on election information and

Join us tomorrow at 3:15 in Harland Cinema for a conversation with Charles Stewart III and Bernard L. Fraga! Emory Alumni

Do you want to see how much the margin in a pre-election poll can vary based on "reasonable" decisions by a pollster? Check this out: disq.us/t/4rd8rfy

Where not #OpenAccess this issue of Political Analysis is free to read for a limited period from - Political Analysis - Volume 32 - Issue 3 - cup.org/3XVghcG

I've posted some thoughts and facts about election night vote reporting on Election Updates: electionupdates.caltech.edu/2024/10/30/loo…

We've got resources for election officials and stakeholders. #PreventElectionMisinformation #Election2024 youtu.be/oa4DL-q1_YU?si… arxiv.org/abs/2410.19202 protectingtheelection.us/blog-3-1/elect… Trump, Preparing to Challenge the Results, Puts His 2020 Playbook Into Action

My Election 2024 postmortem slide deck is available here. Instructors, feel free to borrow from this with attribution. jvictor.gmu.edu/wp-content/upl…

I'm amused at the apocalyptic claims about how thoroughly demolished the Democrats were when the shift in votes was in the 3 percentage point range. We're living in a time when small changes in mass behavior and attitudes can have big changes in governing institutions. That's a

By my count, 22 states are still doing their initial count of votes, although some are closer to being done than others. (e.g., CA is 86% done; RI is 98% done). Until then, treat turnout analyses carefully.

Congrats, Jonathan N. Katz! caltech.edu/about/news/kat…

Press release of joint letter from the American Statistical Association, Population Association of America and Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics urging congress to restore federal data that was removed from public access over two weeks ago.

We are very happy to publish the new National Elections Database, including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946! nationalelectionsdatabase.com with Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet

What's the evidence for the concern that releasing ballots violates the secret ballot? A Science Advances article, published today with Jeff and Michael, reports privacy violations (or lack thereof) in various types of reporting regimes. Writeup at isps.yale.edu/news/blog/2025…

Remember that university endowments are not one giant checking account. They are hundreds of small accounts that can be spent only in accordance with gift agreements. Spending them to replace federal funding might open universities up to more litigation

I wrote an article for the Conversation: theconversation.com/avoiding-your-…

From Weingast's essay "Caltech Rules": "With rare exceptions, papers do not write themselves. Transforming a good idea into a good paper is a difficult process. A clear understanding of what each part of your paper must accomplish is essential to this process."