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It’s certainly very tempting to dwell on all the worst-case scenarios and the most extreme responses Iran might take: from closing the Strait of Hormuz, to attacking U.S. bases in the Gulf, withdrawing from the NPT, breaking out to a weapon (assuming it still has the capacity

It took Iran 5 days to respond with ballistic missiles after the US killed Qassem Solemani in a strike. Iran may take its time again.

Now that Fordow has been attacked, Iran will consider potentially escalating through either attacks against the US, an attempt to close the Hormuz Straits or even attacks against energy installations in the Gulf. None of those are good options that achieve anything - this is

High-ranking Iranian source says Trump team gave advance notice of bombings of Iranian nuclear sites and insisted they're intended as "one-off". The source says the facilities had been evacuated as most of enriched nuclear material stored in a safe place — Amwaj

A lot of the Iranian rhetoric in the past few hours is that Fordow wasn't badly damaged, and that Fordow doesn't even matter anyway, because nuclear material was moved elsewhere. We don't know if such claims are true or not. But initial messaging is trying to downplay the strike

It is possible that they hit it again. The U.S. and Israel have methods to understand if they were successful. This isn't necessarily a one-and-done thing.

The very first reactions from #Russia to the US bombing #Iran #nuclear facilities can be summed up as: “Thank God we have nuclear weapons” This event will likely propel Russia's efforts to further strengthen its own nuclear coercive credibility for deterrence and compellence

One challenge in conceptual approaches to warfare in the era of a mature precision-strike regime is the tendency to adopt ‘strike-as-strategy’—that is, launching attacks against various target sets in the hope of forcing rapid war termination on favorable terms—rather than

This underrates the main issue with these regimes, which is proliferation. You saw these massive long-range ballistic missiles that crashed into Beersheba the other day? Yeah, Iran handed those to the fucking *Houthis* to fire at international civilian airports.

Iran has evacuated key nuclear facilities and transferred material An expected move, there were rumours that Russia might help take over the nuclear material in the event of a big escalation

"What happens at tactical level is chaos" could apply as well to US-originated economic policy.

Indicio de que: → Hace una semana Trump no tenía claro si entrar → El combo Netanyahu haciendo lo suyo y los halcones R vendiendo que podía sumarse a una acción exitosa con pocas consecuencias (veremos) le convenció de lo contrario → Gabbard (DNI) estaba fuera de este loop

The Parliament did not approve it. It didn't even propose a bill for this. The MPs have unanimously reached this conclusion merely in a consultation capacity. The decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council.

Within hours of the strike, we have satellite images showing the damage at Fordow.

Pues si se cierra en estrecho de Ormuz no hagáis más gráficos de salarios reales en España y su evolución en los últimos años: esperad para revisarlos. Es lo que tiene ser un país que debe importar su energía para seguir funcionando, que si esta se encarece, te empobreces.

One expert told me that the images suggested that the US strikes had targeted Fordow’s ventilation and access tunnels.

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US urges China to dissuade Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz. via Reuters What a time to be alive!