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And this analysis doesn't count the regressive tariffs, which have the additional feature -- like several of the bill's tax provisions (looking at you 199A) -- of being very inefficient too.

A tariff is not a VAT. It is by definition not origin-neutral, even at its broadest it only covers a very narrow subset of consumption, and unlike a VAT it also hits business investment. Practically, it also solicits retaliation from other countries which heightens its damage.

The best thing these guys could do for the deficit is not passing any bill at all.

Definitely something you do when you want voters to know what you're voting on

The U.S. country risk trade is back as bonds, stocks and the dollar all fell sharply today. A few more days like today and recession will be likely. And financial accident risk is rising as well. President Donald J. Trump needs to retreat on taxes just as he did on tariffs.

The bond market currently researching how to take physical form so it can try to do this in Congress

I’ve never seen anything like this before. There’s no legislation in history that does so much, so fast, w/ so many last-minute changes, w/ so little analysis of the bill Ofc that’s the point. They’re going at warp speed to avoid analysis because they know it’s wildly unpopular.

Adding $0 trillion to current law debt still means unsustainable debt rising as a share of GDP. Adding $3 trillion to it, as the House bill as passed would do, means it rises even more. But look at this CRFB.org picture and ask if you believe this will only be $3T.

We've had two recent updates on the trade war(s) from the White House, and they're contradictory, confusing, and also seem to be putting worryingly high tariffs back on the table.

All great ideas. A their most aggressive, they would probably net $2 trillion of deficit reduction (and avoid another $3.5 trillion of additional debt). Within the Overton window, probably more like $500 billion. Still good.

People need to chill and be patient about tariffs in the economic data. Tariffs aren't going to be like COVID: it will take months before we see full effects, & May revenues confirmed that tariffs still aren't dialed up to full strength. But we already see some hints in the data.

What does America get from foreign students? - They subsidize American students' education - They inject life into small towns across America - They do a large portion of America's STEM research noahpinion.blog/p/america-need…

Some background for you, Stephen Miller

The CBO Director, Philip Swagel, worked at George W Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors, George W Bush’s Treasury Department, and the American Enterprise Institute.

THREAD: Markets are waking up to a provision buried in the House bill that could undermine the demand for US Treasuries at a time when bond markets are already jittery: ft.com/content/b40000… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Trump says we're overrun by "illegals." He's manifested those fever dreams into reality thru a “de-documentation” campaign, stripping legal immigrants of visas & work permits. He's not targeting criminals; he's criminalizing immigrants who follow the law. wapo.st/3HvBBka