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How Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Could Impact Illinois’ Small Businesses | Chicago News | WTTW news.wttw.com/2025/06/09/how…

AJPS announces a slightly revised policy for manuscript submissions. The page limit on supplemental materials has been increased to 25 pages, and we are also now permitting the submission of pre-registered analysis plans (PAPs). Read more: ajps.org/2025/06/11/upd…

A 🧵 on the ☀️Summer of 2025 #DiD reading list: Quite some authors have recently released new papers or updated their older ones. So here is a reading list dump in reverse chronological order: 👉 Clément de Chaisemartin, Xavier D'Haultfœuille (June 2025). Credible Answers to

Difference-in-differences for practitioners from the diff-in-diffs dream team!

Who pays the price for oil shocks? Our new research on 45 years of German data shows it's low-income workers. Their earnings fall & job prospects dim, while the wealthy are largely unaffected. A tale of unequal economic pain. #EconTwitter #Inequality

Excellent!

mood

We just updated our tariff paper. We now assign products to precise HS-10 codes—replacing the older COICOP-HS mapping—and extend the price data through June 12. Imported prices are up ~3% since early March, a modest increase given the scale of announced tariffs. Most of the

Highly recommended! "How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed" by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis. "The goal of this article is to provide a unified treatment of the theory of how central banks control inflation. The hope is that researchers

I have tried hard to be skeptical of Cattaneo et al.’s new rd2d package, but I have concluded that it is good. This is a great way to do causal inference in spatial RDDs. It makes it a lot harder to claim causation when using them.

We have a new post, and as the title says, it's all about heterogeneous treatment effects :) Because not everyone responds to treatment the same way, and our methods should reflect that substacktools.com/sharex/O2tQdSh9

Thanks to Rivka Lipkovitz, a new version of *fect* is on GitHub. It has more visual options, including - improved gap plots - counterfactual plots - cumulative effects - heterogeneous effects (by time) & more yiqingxu.org/packages/fect/

Community corner: Playing with Stata Dr. Fernando Rios-Avila’s (Fernando Rios-Avila (~ ‾⌣‾)~) latest post on estimating treatment-effect heterogeneity in Stata compares standard regression approaches with the new 𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲 command. Explore his full write-up and examples: stata.com/stata-news/new…

“How the 2018/19 US tariffs against China boosted exports and employment in Mexico” By Natalie Chen, Dennis Novy, Diego Solórzano Column available here: cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

Did retaliatory tariffs affect Canadian imports from the U.S.? And what about consumer boycotts? Some new data provides some early answers. My latest for The Hub: thehub.ca/2025/06/25/tre… #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Incredibly insightful thread. An important read especially for those who think that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine.

We have a new post 🙃 Three recent DiD papers, one shared goal: better estimates in messy settings ☑️DiD that hits efficiency bounds ☑️Synthetic DiD that mimics an oracle ☑️TWFE vs. the new wave 👉substacktools.com/sharex/l34vE6Hs

The Bernanke/Blanchard paper on what caused the US pandemic-era inflation is out in AEJ: Macro. They argue inflation was mostly driven by (temporary) supply shocks, not the tight labour market.

New WP! #econtwitter We establish five facts about how households, firms, social partners (employer organizations and trade unions) and economists form inflation expectations, using data from a harmonized quarterly survey in Norway over 2002–2024. Link: norges-bank.no/en/news-events…

We can promise irreverent humour, and a LOT of nerdery. You can pre-order it in the UK here: amazon.co.uk/dp/103509018X/ And in the US there are links here: simonandschuster.com/books/How-to-W… Technically, we're still writing it, so if you have thoughts then do get in touch...