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For those interested in the topic of statistical models vs reality, have a look at Stark, "Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain" link.springer.com/article/10.100…

A new article responding to discussants of my SJoS article on divergence vs decision P-values, and adding more general discussion of the limitations of statistics for scientific inference (such as false precision): arxiv.org/abs/2304.01392 initial article: arxiv.org/abs/2301.02478

For those interested in the defects of "standardized" coefficients and proportional-variance measures like R-squared and correlation coefficients, see larspsyll.wordpress.com/2023/05/23/the…

R^2 etc is part of my "statistics is pants" lecture that I have never given but really should write up so I can let the demons out at last. Just so many aspects of stats are historical baggage applied and reapplied to the wrong contexts and goals. Science before statistics.

Nice vignette! I would only change "the coin is fair" to "the coin tossing is fair": A skilled tosser can alter the frequency of heads if they know the initial side up and catch the toss. That bias can be avoided by tossing the coin into a wall and letting it land on the floor.

Final print version of my rejoinder to comments on "Divergence vs. decision P-values" is at onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sj… All commentators agreed the main distinction is important, but raised key issues, esp. the need to be alert to insensitivities of a diagnostic to model violations.

So true: 'a collection of perfectly-rational learners can in fact ratchet themselves into believing foolish things...agents with most extreme biases tend to dominate how the system evolves' - as commonly interpreted, "statistical significance"/"confidence"/NHST form a case study.

Don't like p-values? We're presenting a completely new interpretation in the context of clinical trials. With Andrew Gelman, Sander Greenland, guido imbens Simon Schwab and Steve Goodman. Sander Greenland Steven Goodman NEJM Evidence evidence.nejm.org/stoken/default…

Check out this new JAMA Network opinion piece from Miguel Hernán Sander Greenland: “This … proposal is a way to operationalize long-standing calls for shifting research away from testing for effects to estimating effects.” jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…

One of the main issues is that those who most need certain information are less likely to reach or choose to consult the sources of such information. Nevertheless, this seminar is definitely among the knowledge that we all need. Thanks to Sander Greenland youtube.com/watch?v=N7-yn5…

Here is a shorter version of "There's Not Much Science in Science", given in a slightly different context, for the International Conference on Using Epidemiological Studies in Health Risk Assessments, Berlin Nov. 2023: youtube.com/watch?v=fzDyrB…

Congratulations Pavlos on another fine contribution!

My neighborhood too - I remember her as a child, and Arthur as the best neighbor one could have:

Congratulations on this detailed critique of a bad approach! (footnote: unit-randomized experiments can be found in Peirce in the 1880s; Fisher built statistical methods around randomized designs and campaigned for their use. See Stigler 1978 projecteuclid.org/journals/annal…)