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2024 was the 3rd highest average sentiment on stocks going back to 1964. Historically, average returns for the next year at 0.4%. Depressed sentiment, like 2008, results in 19% returns the next year. (PS look at 2018-2020!!!) via The Leuthold Group

If Doug Ramsey of The Leuthold Group is right that "Price is a fundamental," then a deep market decline means a recession for sure (on the + side, it would stop inflation in its tracks). Check out the #BigInterview from today's Money Life Show; here's a preview:

Liz Ann Sonders The Leuthold Group Cool stat. x.com/LizAnnSonders/…

Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey quoted by Karishma Vanjani “The Dot-Com Bubble Peaked 25 Years Ago Today. What the Crash Taught Investors.” barrons.com/articles/dot-c…

. Spencer Jakab quotes Doug Ramsey "Heard on the Street: Investors started out 2025 with extreme confidence. It was a bad sign." wsj.com/finance/invest… via The Wall Street Journal

Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey cited: The Stock Market Was Due for a Rally. Why It Should Start Dropping Again Soon. barrons.com/articles/stock… via @BarronsOnline

A Terribly-Timed #Tariff Tantrum: The U.S. economy was in no position to absorb a minor shock, let alone the second coming of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

Value In Play? Last week’s losses were a mass liquidation with no differentiation between Growth and Value. Regardless, a rotation from the former to the latter appears underway... and the most reliable catalyst for a leadership change is a bear market.

'It’s...worth considering that 'this time' might well be the same as it ever was, and the recent market plunge could morph into a perfectly normal cyclical bear market" --The Leuthold Group The S&P 500 has averaged a 32% decline over the last 13 bear markets

Except for 1999, past severe losses ended w/ the SPX norm-P/E below its 19.4x median. Following 2025’s Feb-Apr, 18.9% loss, the P/E ratio was still 30% above the median. It is now back on the verge of re-entering bubble territory (30x).

The April 24th, Zweig Breadth Thrust (NYSE A/D data) has weakened the bears’ case. The last time ZBT sparked during a bear market was 1949. Since 1950, 6-mo and 12-mo returns after a ZBT are nothing but green. The current gain is the 2nd best in this data.

With 2 mos. of reports in, the Q1 Up/Down Earnings Ratio tumbled, ending a multi-quarter trend of higher results. With the ugly look-back numbers (Q1-24), earnings growth should be well above the LT avg. The past 12-mos.’ modest EPS upswing sputtered in the wake of the trade war.

Dip-buyers can be handsomely rewarded. Buying $SPX each time its loss topped 12% yielded a 1-yr avg gain of 12% (3-5% more than a random entry point). BUT in 50% of cases, the 12%+ loss evolved into a bear market with nasty declines of -22% to -52% before bottoming. #investing

Pre-Y2K, NYSE A/D understated internal strength of $SPX and technicians prematurely cried “wolf.” Today, A/D is exaggerating the market’s underlying health (note EW lagging perf.); those relying on this gauge fail to see that a terminal distribution phase has likely been underway

Bull or Bear? Here’s How the Outlook for Stocks Stacks Up. Leuthold's CIO Ramsey says, "Investors shouldn’t discount the power of positive momentum," per Morningstar, Inc. sr. reporter Sarah Hansen morningstar.com/markets/bull-o…

May was $SPX’s best mo. since Nov-23. Mag 7 drove the gain from the April low (+19%)—only $AAPL lagged. But recall that #Mag7 led SPX’s deep downswing this year, and the Equ.Wtd. Mag 7 is still -5% YTD (thru May). For better or worse, the fate of SPX is tied to these 7 firms.

Pre-2020, when @ConferenceBoard Index of #LEI was in recession mode, $SPX posted -0.3% TR annlzd; the rest of the time, SPX was up 11.6%. Post-2020, LEI has become a contrary signal: Since 2020 when LEI has been in recession mode (45% of time) SPX gained 18% annlzd. #Economy

June’s action again provided the Cap-Weighted S&P 500 a decent YTD lead over Equal-Weighted $SPX, but not quite to the extent of 2023 & 2024 (thus far). Equal-Wgt vs Cap-Wgt relative strength also hit a fresh 22-year low. #investing #Mag7