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"China works to bind regional countries and restrict their foreign policy choices to just itself. Beijing's strategy can best be described as creating a gravity well...[to] slowly and steadily lock the region into its orbit." My latest in Nikkei Asia : asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/To-tac…

New article with The Diplomat assessing whether Indonesia's hedging strategy has changed under President Prabowo. Verdict: It's still "free" (hedging) but perhaps a bit more "active": thediplomat.com/2025/03/indone…

IN THE HEADLINES | "The humanitarian situation in #Myanmar was already dire, and the earthquake only adds to a number of crises across the country." Learn more in this #NeedToKnow with The Indo-Pacific Program's Lucas Myers. buff.ly/bJq4eW5

China's role in Myanmar is clearly to stop the resistance from overthrowing the SAC. Beijing is fine with EAO controlled periphery, but does not seem to be willing to abide any threat to the Tatmadaw's political role. irrawaddy.com/news/myanmar-c…

Xi Jinping finally meets with Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow. The SAC finally got its wish and a big photo op. Meanwhile, on the ground in Myanmar, the resistance continues to hammer the junta. China's pragmatism in Myanmar is long gone: english.news.cn/20250509/d5514…

For The Diplomat (and first with my new GW Sigur Center for Asian Studies affiliation), I explore what the 🇵🇭 political battle between Marcos and Duterte means for US-China competition and the implications of foreign policy polarization in hedging states more broadly : thediplomat.com/2025/05/how-th…

In my latest Foreign Policy with Lucas Myers, we argue there is an increasingly clear & widening gap between US policy rhetoric & actions, and that is undermining US credibility in Asia: foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/10/heg…

Research Affiliate @lucasdeanemyers recently published an article in The Diplomat about how the Philippines' domestic politics have become entwined in greater questions about US-China competition. Read the article here: ow.ly/QA5850W7bCb

Check out Hunter Marston (@hmarston.bsky.social) and I in Foreign Policy, where we analyze Sec. Hegseth's Shangri-La speech and the admin's Indo-Pacific policy. Is this the presidency for the pivot to finally happen? Spoiler: like the MN Vikings, it's probably not our year. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/10/heg…

Hegseth fails to reassure Asian allies at Shangri-La buff.ly/WF6jyu9 Confrontational rhetoric combined with uncertain commitments raise fears of abandonment in Southeast Asia | by Hunter Marston (@hmarston.bsky.social)

The more that the United States overlooks Southeast Asian viewpoints and preferences, the more that it will see its influence and relevance in the Indo-Pacific wane as China’s waxes, Hunter Marston (@hmarston.bsky.social) and Lucas Myers argue. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/10/heg…

Confrontational rhetoric combined with uncertain commitments raise fears of abandonment in Southeast Asia. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/10/heg…

For Foreign Policy, I argue that Myanmar's resistance faces a serious threat. As the conflict drags on, the risk that Beijing successfully splits the Spring Revolution coalition grows. China could be an existential threat to Myanmar's resistance. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/01/chi…

The military’s grip is slipping. The resistance is gaining ground. But the outcome is still uncertain. ow.ly/Qg8950WjT2T

We’ve published a follow-up to the 2022 piece that Lucas and I wrote. This new one addresses some of the questions and debates that have emerged since then.